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Thomas Sowell: The great rush to do ... something

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By THOMAS SOWELL

The big story last week was the incredible Congressional rush to pass in just two days a bill that was more than a thousand pages long -- after which it sat on the President's desk for three days while the Obamas were away on a holiday.

There is the same complete inconsistency in the bill itself. Despite the urgency in President Obama's rhetoric, as well as in Congress' haste in passing a bill that few -- if any -- members had time to read, much less consider, most of the actual spending will take place next year, at the earliest.

Not even the most Alice-in-Wonderland actions will arouse the suspicions of those who have what William James once called "the will to believe."

Nowhere was that will to believe greater than in the election of Barack Obama to be President of the United States, not on the basis of any actual accomplishment, but as the repository of hopes and symbolism. His supporters among the voters and in the media are not going to stop believing now.

It will take a lot more than blatant inconsistency for the faithful to lose faith. It may take catastrophe -- and there may well be catastrophe.

For some, even catastrophe under Obama can be blamed on George Bush. After all, Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected to an unprecedented third term in 1940, after two terms in which the unemployment rate never fell below 10 percent and was above 20 percent for 21 consecutive months.

FDR also inspired the will to believe -- and he also had Herbert Hoover on whom to blame all the country's troubles.

It may seem strange to those who never lived through those times that someone could be President of the United States for eight straight years and nevertheless escape responsibility for mass unemployment by blaming his long-departed predecessor. But we may yet see a rerun of that scenario in our own time.

Nothing in the amateurish way the current administration has begun suggests that they have mastered even the mechanics of governing, much less the complexities of the huge national problems looming ahead, at home and abroad.

The multiple Cabinet nominees withdrawing before their nomination can come to a vote in the Senate are just one example of this amateurism.

Another example was the Secretary of the Treasury holding a much heralded unveiling of his recovery plan, only to publicly embarrass himself and the administration when his speech made painfully clear that there is no plan, but only pious hopes. The plunge in the stock market after his speech suggests how much confidence he inspired.

There is far more to fear from this administration than its amateurism in governing. The urgency with which it has rushed through a monumental spending bill, whose actual spending will not be completed even after 2010, ought to set off alarm bells among those who are not in thrall to the euphoria of Obama's presidency.

The urgency was real, even if the reason given was phony. President Obama's chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, let slip a valuable clue when he said in November that a crisis should not go to waste, that a crisis is an opportunity to do things that you could not do otherwise.

Think about the utter cynicism of that. During a crisis, a panicked public will let you get away with things you couldn't get away with otherwise.

A corollary of that is that you had better act quickly while the crisis is at hand, without Congressional hearings or public debates about what you are doing. Above all, you must act before the economy begins to recover on its own.

The party line is that the market has failed so disastrously that only the government can save us. It is proclaimed in Washington and echoed in the media.

The last thing the administration can risk is delay that could allow the market to begin recovering on its own. That would undermine, if not destroy, a golden opportunity to restructure the American economy in ways that would allow politicians to micro-manage other sectors of the economy the way they have micro-managed the housing market into disaster.

Thomas Sowell is the Rose and Milton Friedman senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. His Web site is www.tsowell.com.

YOUR COMMENTS


Talk about revisionism, Mike, your man, Obama, now says that the federal deficit is what caused the recession. How idiotic is that? Everyone agrees, both Dems and GOP-ers alike, that it was the housing bubble that caused the recession. As for your hero, FDR, 10 years into his New Deal and he still couldn't get unemployment below 15%. This is hardly anything to boast about. Go ahead and Google that figure if need to verify my claim--there's plenty of data on it. Keep in mind, too, that's this is with government-sponsored jobs. So the bottom line is, FDR's shoot-from-the-hip "economic recovery plan" didn't work any better than Japan's dismal attempts to infuse new life into their sagging economy by embarking on an ambitious, government-funded plan to improve its infrastructure, much like the one Obama's proposing. So how much evidence do you need before you'll accept the fact that that these approaches simply do not work?

Now here's something to be sad about: what DOES work is entirely missing from Obama's plan. Cutting corporate taxes and promoting entrepreneurship. This is the most effective way to remedy an ailing economy. This is what creates REAL jobs and REAL opportunities for people, long-term. And it's been proven to work time and time again. The other component that's tragically missing from Obama's plan is an initiative to encourage mortgage companies to offer homeowners mark-to-market terms on existing mortgages. This would ease the financial burden on homeowners and enable them to stay in their homes. But rather than helping the homeowners, Obama's plan helps the mortgage companies. Just brilliant. If only these facets had been included in Obama's so-called "stimulus package," why then we might actually be on the road to economic recovery. So sad.
- Susie Nickerson, Horseshoe Bay, TX (NH native)

Guy Plante, Manchester

What makes you feel that lower stock prices are bad? They are in fact good! The market is not dying, it is self adjusting to reality.

Throughout the Bush years the rich got richer as never before here the USA, and just as they ran up the prices for ocean front and other prime property, they've run up the prices for stocks. It's these artificially high prices that are bad.

Lower prices now better reflect the real value of companies and are a good thing.

The only people that benefit from artificially high stock prices are speculators. You saw what speculators did for oil, jacked it to $140 a barrel for no reason than greed.
- Al, Bedford

Mike Lane, that was a masterwork of using Sowell to segue into your usual partisan rant, without refuting a single thing he said, and then accuse everyone else on the blog of doing that very thing. Then you conclude with, "So sad," like a soccer mom--an assertion that is inherently undebatable. I'm sorry you're sad.

The reason FDR couldn't alleviate the Depression until he was lucky enough to have a World War occur, is that he responded to every temporary market imbalance with a permanent lengthening of the rulebook and hiring of economic dictators, convinced (as Obama recently verbalized) that "only the government" could get us out of this mess.

Joan Merrick, thank you for the school-yard cut-down. Yes, a woman who can actually analyze the issues, as Susie does, is a real find (though I guess I am old enough to be her father). You seem jealous, as it will never be you.
- Spike, Brentwood NH

It really doesn't get much more ridiculous than this. First Mr. Sowell raises the canard of the unread Bill, as if all Bills are read before they are signed, and Mr. Sowell darn well knows that they are not. We need only recall the GOP cramming the Patriot Bill down our throats to deconstruct that strawman. Next we move on to Mr. Sowell's fear of George Bush being blamed for our current state of affairs. Well, if George Bush and the GOP hadn't been such dismal failures for 8 years there would be little danger of that, nor would there have been such a likelihood that Americans would turn to the Democrats in droves. If we are to believe Mr. Sowell, the blame for the excesses of the failed GOP leadership of the last 8 years lies with a man who has been President for less than 30 days . Additionally, somehow the 2 years that Democrats controlled congress has had more of an adverse impact in Mr. Sowell's opinion than the first 6 years of the Bush administration, when the GOP controlled all levers of power. The Senate, House, and the Oval Office.

Then the Great Depression revisionism. When FDR took office the unemployment rate was 25%, this was after Hoover had 4 years to deal with it. Getting it down to 10 percent was no small feat, no matter what Mr. Sowell says. 4 years of Hoover telling us that the markets would take care of themselves, and advocating we do nothing, is somehow irrelevant to Mr. Sowell. One is left with the impression that, in the eyes of the GOP and their apologists, every problem in America can always be blamed on Democrats whether they are in power or not.

Anything good that happens during a Republican administration is attributable to the GOP's magnificence. Anything bad that happens during a Republican Administration is the fault of the previous Democratic Administration. If it's not feasible to blame the previous Democratic Administration then you simply claim that your Republican President wasn't a "real" Republican. Wash, rinse, and repeat. The Party of Personal Responsibility. So sad.
- Mike Lane, Manchester

Tom from Campton jumps the shark!

Tom blithely denigrates (as an acronym) the ordinary cable and print media that includes CNN, Fox, and the NYTimes & Wall Street Journal. THEN recommends Mad Magazine, hmmm right gotcha Tom!

I'm visualizing an average up country NH person wasting $5 on a copy on Tom's recommendation, and making an idiot of himself at the gas station at the same time. "Ah, it's for my nephew, he lost a tooth."
- Roland Marquis, Manchester

The Wall Street Report in today's paper says it all: "Stock market continues slide" because investors (mostly "the little folks", I bet) still don't have much faith that the stimulus and bailout the Clowns in Washington have put together will do the job of turning the economy around.
Time will tell, but how much time?
- Guy Plante, Manchester

Tom, Campton

Mad Magazine! Really? Do you read at the child's reading room at the library? You subscribe?

It makes sense though because your posts reflect reality like a fun house mirror. I've had the urge to try to out-fruitcake you here, just for the creative writing challenge, it would be about impossible.
- Johathan Long, Hanover

A masterful, realistic appraisal of the disaster that was Obama's first month in office. Has any president ever performed so poorly over the span of any month, never mind the first month? I am not referring just to domestic matters; Obama's bumbing in foreign affairs has been equally disastrous but has received little coverage by the MSM.

Despite the fact that virtually all of the MSM is carrying Obama's water, the American people are finally beginning to catch on. Rasmussen has Obama's approval today at 57%, a plunge of 10 points over the past month. Apart from the 35% or so who are Obama dead-enders, deep doubts and concern about Obama have set in among the American people. The bloom is thankfully off the rose, the euphoria surrounding the allegedly historic new president has evaporated.

There has been one exception to the shameful behavior of the MSM, one brave media outfit that has dared to print the truth about Obama. Mad Magazine will be focusing again on the Obama administration in their next edition. The cover art alone is priceless, profound, and as close to the truth as you will find anywhere.
- Tom, Campton

Susie and Spike gotta go out for a mug of koolaid, I think love is in the air.

Sowell yakked for years while Bush destroyed the economy, says nothing about the billions BUSH just handed to banks for which we'd LOVE to see a one page, never mind 1000 pages of explanation.

Koolaid addiction includes the inability to accept when you are a raging hypocite.
- Joan Merrick, Bedford

Could somebody please print me a bumper sticker that reads;

1-20-09 The Beginning of a NEW Error!
- Richard Davies, Manchester

Excellent post, Spike. And now, the inscrutable determination as to who qualifies for mortgage relief and who doesn't--with the government as the final arbiter of all things. This, too, will fail, and will not be attributable to a market failure.

Don't you love the White House spokesman's feeble defense when asked, "How will the administration ensure that only those who 'played by the rules' get the relief." It's no surprise that he never answered the question. These guys wiggle out of the tough questions like yellow-bellied weasels. McCain was right about one thing: "Pinning Obama (and his minions) down on an issue is like trying to nail jello to the wall."

But I'm relieved that the press is finally emerging from it's Obama-induced stupor and is getting back in touch with reality. After all, this is their job--to ask the tough questions so that Americans better understand the issues.
- Susie Nickerson, Horseshoe Bay, TX (NH native)

I am sure the usual suspect will chime in and brainlessly insist all our current problems are exclusively the fault of George Bush and/or the GOP, and that Sowell doesn't get it, but he does. The truth is the fault is wide spread, and the democrats, lead by Barney Frank and Bill Clinton, dishonestly claim innocence. President Obama won becasue he ran a superior campaign, aided by the medias adoration and unwillingness to question his empty phrases and populist promises. Following Rahm Emmauels "never waste a crisis" statement, the democrats took advantage of a situation they helped create to pass a large number of pet projects without any real adult supervision. Sadly this is common enough, both parties do it, but the sheer cost of this faux-stimulous bill should shame even the most gullible legislator. (Sadly, Shea-Porters weekly look-at-me e-letter proves she is a clueless as ever).
- jeff, goffstown

Unfortunately the majority of this nation have become clueless sheep, lemmings and will follow the scent of the proverbial free lunch all the way to the death of freedom.

Maybe, just maybe, the minority will stand up and be counted and will be prepared to feed the "tree of liberty". (If you don't know the phrase then read some history - oh ya, I forgot, we don't teach that subject anymore!
- Ted C, Keene

I am not a fan of any of the stimulus or bailout packages that have been used since last year. With that said and with the calls to get back to 'free markets' would someone explain to me, after the proven failures of 'free markets', why Americans should want more of the same without adequate regulations in place to prevent all the abuses and thievery that have happened? Is this just part of the price that we must pay? Is lobbying and legislation written to legalize these crimes by bankers and corporations a way to prevent their criminality? Are their standards to be set lower than the average American? Is our personal responsibility to be mandated while theirs is ignored? Recent history is the absolute, undeniable truth that human greed is the driving force in the 'free market' and the sole purpose of these markets is to transfer wealth from one pocket to another. Whether a fair trade is involved is determined by the legislation that makes the unethical and immoral, legal.
- Tom, Dover-Foxcroft, Me.

"We all were sold a pet rock.
- Steve, Pembroke"

Not all of us, Steve.
- Bob D., Manchester

Re: Bob Paulding's comments on the veteran pension fund: There are not enough votes to do something like that Bob.

This entire bill is about votes and pet projects. That is why most of the "community investment" will not kick in until 2010 and 2012 and most of the rest of it will happen after the 2012 election cycle.

People should read the bill. Just make sure you have not eaten any spicy foods and do have a barf bag on hand. If you are suffering from the flu, wait until you fully recover.
- William Simpson, Concord, NH

Obama, who hasn't got clue about the economy or how to govern, has surrounded himself with an equally inept staff of ignorarant dodos. It's the blind leading the blind and it would be funny if their floundering wasn't causing so much grief for so many people. They have no idea what they're doing and it shows.
- Brian, Farmington

I have voted Republican in the past but frankly, they dropped the ball too.I am now supporting Libertarian ideas because they are what the Republicans used to be. Mr Sowell nailed it again ,the only thing I can add is Term Limits for all politicians so that Acorn can't keep the voter fraud going.
- Tim, Boscawen

No, no, no, can't do that, mustn't do this, cut taxes, shrink wrap more hundreds for Halliburton. Don't you people ever get tired of retreading disproven ideas. Trickle down your leg economics didn't work as Reagan's economist (Stockton) said, hasn't worked, can't work, no matter how much rich people keep saying give me more money and I'll work it out for you. Turns out that Bernanke sat on Fed money he could have used to buy commercial paper for months while telling everyone else to give Goldman Sachs (oops, I meant Paulson) billions to do the same thing he could have done if he had the balls to act. Every single head of a financial organization need to be put on permanent vacation. A child of five has had better ideas than Williams and the Enterprise Institute and Hoover have had. "A conservative is someone who has two good legs and refuses to walk forward." FDR
- William, Deerfield

The press has finally picked up on the fact that noone actually read the legislation befor voting on it. This has been the practice for years.

Hopefully they will start covering the fact that none of our elected representatives actually write any of the legislation being passed. It is all written by unelected, unaccountable government paid bureacrats, Constitution be damned.

Please go to Downsize DC to try to change this.
- Brian Fellers, Grafton Nh

Think I'll start making and selling "Don't blame me. I voted for the other guy (and gal)" T-shirts.
- Chabis, Peterborough

Indeed. Paulson and Bernanke deciding (before TARP) to have the government "invest" in failing firms--but not others--by inscrutable criteria, was not a market failure. Having the government dictate to banks that they had to give mortgages to the unqualified was not a market failure. Forcing the banks to rewrite those contracts now, to be even more favorable to the unqualified, won't be a market failure. We have put many levers of power in place by which Washington policymakers, who are "smarter than the market," could protect us from the business cycle. 2008 was the most spectacular proof that the rationale was false. The question is: Can we ever get BACK to the free market?
- Spike, Brentwood NH

We all were sold a pet rock.
- Steve, Pembroke

This stimulus bill is shaping up to be one disaster. All the handouts and rush to give away 787 billion dollars while waiting for some measures to be put in place to regulate the markets to try and prevent what was done that led to this mess in the first place. The foreclosures are going through the roof, unemployment is trending upwards at an alarming rate, and all we are talking about is getting out of this by creating and funding more public projects. Whats going to happen to these construction and rebuilding projects once they are done? People get laid off. This is the worst spending projects I have heard off.
This is not going to help the private sector and people are going to end up worse off than ever. I'm sorry, people shouldn't be getting bailed out and not be expected to pay it back. They created this mess on their own two feet. They need to stand up and take responsibility for their obligations.
- Jack Alex, Manchester

I consider myself an independent person/voter but after skimming through the new Stimulus package signed into law I just don't know. 25M for the Smithsonian, 50M for the National Endowment of the Arts, Health and Human Services 2.5B, 4 B to HUD (with priority spending given to vacant rental units), 1.5 B to the Homeless Prevention Fund, Payments up to 15K to the Phillipine scouts in WWII. Thank god they at least removed the 400M for STD prevention. I encourage everyone to read this on the White House website.
There's lots of good construction projects but my impression is there's a lot of waste.
If our leaders wanted to spend this much money, then why didn't they fix the disabled veteran pension system. I thought this election year I kept hearing pro-veteran in speeches? When military people retire and are disabled, they don't get the same disability pay as our disabled federal civil servants. I hope our NH leaders here this.

Bob Paulding USAF Ret
- Robert Paulding, E Wakefield

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