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Fergus Cullen: Signs of a GOP civil war in New Hampshire
By FERGUS CULLEN
Friday, Oct. 30, 2009
Drive 100 miles northwest of Lebanon to the other side of Lake Champlain, and you arrive in New York's 23rd congressional district, where next week's special election parallels contests taking place in New Hampshire.
James Fenimore Cooper's novel "The Last of the Mohicans" was set nearby, and that's politically appropriate: This is one of just three districts, out of 51 possible in New York and New England, that elected a Republican to Congress last fall. The district includes Fort Ticonderoga, the Revolutionary War battle site, but today's fight more resembles civil war within the Republican Party.
Intensity is up among the very conservative, many of whom believe John McCain lost because he wasn't conservative enough. When Adirondack region county chairmen inexplicably selected a liberal Republican, Dede Scozzafava, as the party's nominee, many local and national conservatives bolted and are supporting Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. Hoffman has a chance to win the three-way contest, but his candidacy also helps the Democrat by dividing the center-right vote.
A faction among the right wing almost doesn't care who wins. If it's Hoffman, great. If Hoffman causes Scozzafava to lose, also great. Nothing quite gets people's attention like a public execution, and her defeat will force other candidates to show the right wing more respect.
The situation has similarities to a special election for state representative that will take place in Concord next week. Jim MacKay was a rarity: a Republican who could win in Concord. He served five terms as a moderate before being swept out in the Obama tide last fall. MacKay was prepared to run for the seat again, but after learning a splinter group of disaffected conservatives would oppose him in a primary he probably could not win MacKay changed parties and is running as a Democrat.
The Republican nominee, Lynne Blankenbeker, is a highly credible candidate who won her primary with the support of conservatives, but now she faces the daunting challenge of getting elected in a city in which all 12 other seats are held by Democrats. Again, a small number of ideologues almost don't care who wins. If Blankenbeker wins, fantastic. If MacKay wins as a Democrat, good riddance. Better to be pure and lose than compromise and win.
More pragmatic conservatives focused on winning general elections think this is madness. The net result of the special elections in New York and Concord could be the same: Republicans down a seat they held a year ago. The party will be in the minority for a long time if its activists care more about winning primaries than general elections.
In Maine next week, voters will consider a Taxpayers Bill of Rights (TABOR) that would limit state spending increases to population growth plus inflation. The Maine TABOR is opposed by those who make their living off taxpayers, including labor unions and New Hampshire's Pike Industries, which has taxpayer-funded paving contracts in Maine worth tens of millions of dollars.
Maine's TABOR is similar to the spending cap on the ballot in Manchester. If the spending cap fails, some will fault Republican Ted Gatsas, who is expected to win the mayor's race by a comfortable margin, but who disappointingly chose not to campaign aggressively for the cap. The decision seems calculated to avoid antagonizing the voter-rich public employee unions.
Contrast this with Democrat Gov. John Lynch's decision to go through with plans to lay off a couple of hundred state employees, a move likely to strengthen Lynch's 48-39 job approval rating among self-identified conservatives, as measured in this month's University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll.
When a Republican candidate doesn't stand for much other than spending a little less than Democrats, raising taxes a little less than Democrats and giving labor unions a little less than Democrats, the result can be what is happening in the New Jersey governor's race.
More people think Michael Vick should get a puppy than believe Democrat Jon Corzine should be re-elected, but Republican candidate Chris Christie's agenda-free campaign invited an independent challenger. Chris Daggett is running to Christie's right, splitting the anti-incumbent vote and may leave Corzine with a winning plurality.
New Hampshire Republican candidates plotting strategies to win elections to the U.S. Senate and House next year will be watching these races intently. If Republicans lose in New York, Concord and New Jersey, both purist and pragmatic conservatives will be even more convinced their approach is right, and the next civil war battlefield could be here.
Fergus Cullen, a freelance columnist for the New Hampshire Union Leader, is former chairman of the state Republican Party. He can be reached at fergus@ferguscullen.com.

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Andrew Cline has been editorial page editor of the New Hampshire Union Leader since October of 2001. His writing has appeared in more than 100 newspapers and magazines, including The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and National Review.
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YOUR COMMENTS
I like this being conservative is supposed to be hard meme. Take positions that are against the mainstream, limit equality, limit access to political demonstrations, spout moralisms while your candidates do the most corrupt and disgusting things (Craig, Foley, Limbaugh, Vitter, Sanford, Libby and on and on), claim support for individualism while weaseling into everyone's bedrooms, bank accounts, to make prudism a touch stone. The part the Democrats would like to make more difficult is the corruption, the no bid contracts, the tax loop holes, the results of unrestrained greed. The excuses about volunteerism and compasionate charity, and most of all the self congratulatory smuggness asserting that you know anything about what would make this a better country - having recently gotten us into two useless wars and crashed the economy. Way to go. And you still don't have health care.
- Robert, Deerfield
Fergus,
You should have waited a couple of days to file this article. Tell us now, why did Dede Scozzafava drop out? Could it be that she realized that the conventional wisdom is wrong again? Are more people beginning to realize that a difference is actually a difference? The progressive Democrats, and Republicans who are such in name only, will lead us to the same place, just at different rates of speed.
Bill Walsh
- Bill Walsh, Newport
It seems like Fergus and the rest of the RINO establishment fail to understand the concept of principals over Party. It seems like they still haven’t got a clue about upholding the Constitution, limited federal government, and individual liberty. The RINO crowd, like their Progressive – Statist cousins in the Democratic Party only cares about one thing – protecting the ruling class establishment. As far as I’m concerned I didn’t leave the Republican Party, it left me – along time ago. I will vote for Conservative or Libertarian candidates that actually uphold the principals of America’s Founders. The RNC and Michael Steele can continue to beg Conservatives for their donations while at the same time pissing in their faces and telling them it’s just rain. No dice here RINO-N-C, I will spend my donations on the particular Conservative and Libertarian candidates of my choosing, ones which are fit to deserve my support. Apparently the Republican Party establishment assumes that I am stupid enough to vote with any name that happens to have an “R” at the end of it. Newsflash RNC, I do check the politicians voting records, and from where I stand, all those “R’s” have voted just like “D’s” – no wonder once these so called “Republicans” are exposed, they jump ship over to the Democrats looking to save their sorry rear ends and pathetic political careers. With “friends” like these in the Republican Party, who needs enemies?
- Mac Wade, Newmarket
The conservatives are right in NY-23 and in Concord. They are wrong to consider Daggett in NJ as he might cause Corzine to win.
Conservatives and moderates should abide by the winner of GOP primaries. But in Concord and in NY-23, we're not talking about somebody winning a primary.
Unless the Dems can get third party candidates to split the conservative vote in all the elections in 2010, both state and federal level, the Dems are doomed. Don't listen to the worrywarts.
- Dwayne, Bedford, NH
Sorry Fergus but your politcal skills do not seem to be improving at all. Hoffman has NO chance to win that election next Tuesday....NONE. As for former Representative McKay he should be elected by the voters in Concord and it is incredible that you would say good riddance to a man who has worked for years to help people in this state.
To be clear, if someone calls themselves a Republican but would do a bad job you support that person over someone who runs as a Democrat but would do a good job?
- Rick Newman, Nottingham
Mike from Barnstead.....
Reagan Network has existed for 2 and a half years....gee, if it has helped Democrats so much, why was NH one of only three states in the ENTIRE country who GAINED Republican House seats in the 2008 election?
Fiscal sanity, responsible budgeting, and not going off on social re-engineering will return in 2010 when NH voters reject the liberal agenda and spending of the Democrats.
The State Republican Party, Reagan Network, and Republican House and Senate leadership will strongly prevail working as a team in the 2010 general election. Reagan Network may help conservatives in the primary, but we realize that to get NH back on track, Republicans need to regain the majority in 2010. We understand that it is the economy and jobs that people are most concerned about.
- Fran, New Hampton
One person said Mackay and Cullen are "literally two peas in a pod." That means they are both actually peas not humans but giant vegetables and that both are actually in a pod. They might both be jerks but I bet neither is actually a walking vegetable. They are figuratively peas in a pod. Don't use literally wrong or it will lose its meaning.
- Noah W., Concord
When did politics become uniform? I thought America was about diversity. What good is a neutral, unbiased, impartial or moderate Politician? Ever try a playground seesaw with one person?
Diversity is, in itself, balanced. We’ve been leaning one way so long I think we’ve forgotten what made America so great. We treat with contempt our founding principles and our state of affairs declines. Our answer, insert Government. The condition worsens, we curse traditional values and install more Government. America has been in this cycle for decades with no resolve, yet we plead for more of what fails us and denounce time-tested principles.
Bring me the party that believes in our Constitution, freedom and liberty. Call yourself what you will, I’ll call you an American.
- Wally, Manchester, NH
George Pataki just endorsed Hoffman in NY 23. The NRCC and RNC are backing off attacking Hoffman. Who knows what will happen there. If Owens wins he will still have to face re election next year which is on course to be a good year for Republicans. Hoffman would no doubt win the Republican Primary and face Owens and more likely win.
The one thing that Fergus is missing in his article is the one thing that the Democrats used to lift themselves into the victory column, George W Bush. Without Bush Democrats have to run on their own record and not against an unpopular incumbent President. Every Democrat running with the exception of Lynch had Bush co star in their ads last year. Bush never would have been in those ads if there wasn't some sort of payoff in regards to attracting angry voters.
Fergus paints an invincible Democratic Party and a demoralized Republican Party that can only win if RINOS are on the ballot. The Biggest RINO of them all the so called "President Of New Hampshire" John McCain lost this state by 10 %. The momentum has shifted since Obama's inauguration. If Republicans chose their candidates as they should in the GOP primary(unlike NY-23) next year we won't have three way races to worry about.
- Chris, Merrimack
Face it. Neither party ever tries to convince the people to do the right thing. Both pander and promise the sky... for free! I am affiliated with neither party. When there is one that balances budgets, spends wisely and actually has common sense I'll be with that one. I am not holding my breath. By my calculation, Fergus, you will be a Democrat in about six months. The LCD of your party will throw you out by then.
- Steve B, Derry
(sigh) The column, the responses, the complete apathy and disillusionment of voters and small business owners--reiterates my complete and total lack of interest in volunteering to do anything politically anymore. Keep it up, guys! There's no jobs, everything is unaffordable--you are not offering me any sort of hope for our futures. And, most of all, NOTHING people try to do for the Party is even appreciated. Nitpicking our Party into oblivion is working out well. I hope that was your goal.
Kris MacNeil
Concord
- Kris MacNeil, Concord
Being a conservative is supposed to be hard. Make tough choices, balance budgets, etc. Even some people on this board like to pretend like they are conservatives, but have no interest in balancing a budget. I think fiscal conservatism sells all over the country, however social conservatism (govt telling people what to do) only sells in the south. I do like fiscal conservatives, I don't generally like Republicans.
- David, Bedford, NH
This is indicative of the NH GOP establishment and why they have made losing veritably a hobby.
When you stand for absolutely nothing or worse, just a wattered down version of the other side, you offer the electorate an easy choice.
Why should voters choose a moderate promising more accountants and rules whent the Democrat is promising to save their lives, savings, grandparents, puppies and kittens? Voters are not, as the wishy wing of the GOP thinks, stupid. Choosing the authentic (at least sounding) product over the cheap knockoff is a no-brainer.
If we continue to nominate the lowest common denominator in order to blur differences, our recent hobby of losing will become a lifestyle.
- Bill, Concord
In the NY race, the Republican is a pro-choice Obama supporter, so that's the real problem THERE.
As for NH, as Fergus intimates, there's a faction in the NH GOP that he's correctly described who are NOT Republicans at all, but who, like Glenn Beck said just last night, don't really care if the GOP wins elections or not. They simply want to pour their brand of extreme Individualism into the empty vessel of the party - a vessel that is desperately in need of definition.
Rational Conservatism understands that societies exist, that OTHERS exist outside of our own desires, and that parties are groups dedicated to SERVING those Others.
If this group of Free State/Libertine extremists get hold of the party and change it into a tool for dismantling the very idea of Society itself, we're headed for extinction faster than the Federalists of the early 19th Century.
- Stpehen A., Manchester
The Republican Party's JOB is to make sure the right's vote is NOT split! They need to get the candidates to agree to the methodology of a poll shortly before the vote, and the Party forces whoever is behind in the poll to drop out of the race, and endorse the other candidate. Even if it hands the seat to an independent or Libertarian! It’s better than handing it to a Democrat.
Fergus is asking voters to be pragmatic sell outs, and vote for a winner rather than a fellow believer. I am asking the Party to enable the voters to vote their consciences, and the candidates to be pragmatic believers, and to fall on their sword if necessary to help the movement. There’s always next the race / office.
- Jim, Manchester
Thanks, Fergus for all the advice RE: McKay, NH's Arlen Specter wanna-be. After helping NH get on the fast track to becoming New Jersey, are you ever going to go away?
- Mae, Plaistow
Fergus - I am going to assume you are checking this message board for the responses so I ask you - do you realize how many Rick from Windhams there are out there? Party identity means nothing to them but they are conservative and they will vote that way. This isn't a "civil war" it's a populist uprising. You might have noticed that you were one of the first victims.
Conservative independents are going to the polls next year (hopefully also in the primaries!) and they will be voting for limited government low spend low tax candidates. If the GOP wants to win, they need to support such candidates. NY-23 is going to be a well deserved slap in the face to the NRCC and the RNC. But will they get the message or continue to berate conservatives for "messing things up"?
My message to conservatives is this: please get involved in GOP primaries, then get involved in the party, and make it your own. The Washington crowd doesn't run things here in NH (and neither does Fergus).
- Mark, Amherst
Fergie is a symbol and an advocate of everything that went wrong with the Republican party. Every stupid word he writes underscores the fact.
- Rowland, Fremont
So let me get this straight-- according to Fergus, a REPUBLICAN Jim MacKay would be a good thing, but a DEMOCRAT Rep. Jim MacKay would be a bad thing? Hey Fergus, we're talking about the same guy! If he goes to Concord and supports the liberal agenda through his voting, what difference does it make? Oh that's right-- if a conservative alternative gets the nod, she might actually VOTE that way when she gets there. And that, for the closet liberal Fergus Cullen, is the true crux of the matter... A Jim MacKay is a much safer bet to vote the way Fergus likes.
- Doug Lambert, Gilford
Mr. Cullen - we're not interested in the party affiliation of any candidates. We're interested in how well they adhere to conservative principles. Check the polling data - 40% of America does. Let the GOP establishment ignore this at their own peril.
- Tom, Campton
The best way to fix the Republican Party is elect a "dark horse". A conservative like Mel Thompson. This business of putting in quasi Democrats, like Kelly Ayotte is getting old! We need level headed strong leadership, not "a yes man" or woman, for that matter. America is in trouble. It doesn't need the people who don't want to admit it, like we have now. They are reinforcing failed ideas and policy to try to solve a problem caused by these failed ideas and policies!
- Steve, Raymond
If Republicans acted as true conservatives and honestly lowered taxes, shrunk government, and helped create jobs while standing firm on values you would see many democrats cheering them on.
If there is a split in the Republican Party it comes from those who time and time again compromise the ideals the party was founded on like Olympia Snow. But the real blame falls on the party leaders who have slowly traded party values to be closer to democrat values of tax and spend and government knows best for votes the same why they do with illegal immigration and the Hispanic vote, which pretty much comes down too we will not enforce our laws is you vote for us.
Do you notice now how the economy is no longer America's economy when our leaders speak? It is now the global economy and I don't remember electing anyone to be concerned with other nation’s economies over our own. Do any of us even have a party watching out for us any more I wonder?
- Deb, Derry
Hey Bill in Mont Vernon, can you please run for office. Your assessment is absoultely brilliant and is exactly how I think. I will support a conservative no matter what party they are. Just because someone has an R next to their name does not mean they are conservative and that is the problem. 2010 will bring out the silent conservative majority and many of these RINO's will be voted out.
- Rick, Windham
The column leaves out some very important truths. In claiming to espouse the virtue of not being partisan, Cullen is being extremly partisan. Jim MacKay is an experienced, former Republican State Rep and Mayor of Concord and regardless of affiliation the best person for the job. He is moderate and a deliberate consensus maker who knows the community. He very much represents an old guard of reasonable and moderate Republicans in the State who have been forced out. His opponent is a recent transplant to the State who came here to go to the local law school. While I am sure she is nice, she is extremely conservative on a host of issues including a woman's right to choose and is being pushed by an extremely far right group that pushed out another moderate old guard Republican in town.
The only correlation Cullen could make here in terms of this election is the mess his party has created for themselves by forcing out good, moderate, consensus makers like Jim MacKay.
- Eric Tolbert, Manchester, New Hampshire
RINOs -- especially those without unifying leadership abilities -- always always always find excuses to bash the Republican Wing of the Republican Party.
Above Mr. Cullen refers to us fiscal and social conservatives as "the very conservative," "a faction among the right wing," "a small number of ideologues," and "activists [who] care more about winning primaries than general elections."
RINOs need to remember precisely what we "ideologues" can do when a unifying GOP leader comes along. Most all of us who helped Pat Buchanan maul old George Bush are still kicking around here in New Hampshire. After ObaMania, we are more than ready to work hard and smart for the right Republican unifying leaders whom we can trust. Surely by now even RINOs see we don't care for "Big Tent" Republicans who want our votes but kick us in the teeth when we espouse well documented, well affirmed social and fiscal Republican principles.
Mr. Cullen is concerned about a "Civil War" within the NH GOP but most of us F&S conservatives don't perceive it that way at all. Rather, when the smoke filled room Republicans present us with mushy middle Republican candidates whom they think "can win", we shake our heads, yawn, and turn our attention elsewhere. It's sad, but the last 10 years or so prove it. Stop bashing us, offer up unifying Reaganesque leaders, and we shall be your best friends.
- Ed Holdgate, Live Free or Die Sandown, NH
Mr. Cullen omits an essential fact: Mr. Hoffman is currently leading both opponents with momentum to further consolidate his lead.
Ms. Scozzafava was named Republican candidate by a collection of party chairpersons who thought they knew better. Perhaps what offends Mr. Cullen is how foolish the party leadership looks (again).
As to Mr. MacKay, I wish him all the success that Pennsylvania's Arlen Specter is currently enjoying.
- Steven, Swanzey
This infighting is exactly what put the Democrats in power everywhere. Not that Bush didn't make mistakes but conservatives absolutely roasted him when his policies and actions moved from the right which is fine but then they deserted the whole party. While you will see the leftists roasting Obama on the rare occasion he isn't appeasing the far left but they don't desert him or the party regardless of the ill acts they may commit. I agree with Mr. Cullen, if conservatives don't put winning first the far left will still be in power in 2011.
- Don Diamant, Milton, NH
Fergus, what the hell? your no John H. Sununu, this party is itching to fight...the DEMOCRATS.....if you stop trying to think and talked to the activists, you might have a clue about what is going on......
- Harry, Wolfeboro
Stevie V:
The problem with the Republican party in our surrounding states is not that they stood for conservatism; far from it. The problem was, and is, they stand for nothing.
- Bill, Mont Vernon
From what I understand the lady (Republican) in the race in NY Dist 23 is more liberal than the Democrat in the race. The NY Conservative Party is a legal entity and their candidate is a conservative Republican (Independent). Lynne Blankenbeker of Concord is a Republican who continues to serve her country (Naval Reserve) and a Concord attorney - and she might be considered a conservative - so is the problem she being a conservative Republican? Jim MacKay was a liberal Republican. Now he is a liberal Democrat (sort of in the mold of Arlen Specter). This state needs representatives in Concord who understand that there are more than one issue which is to place us at a disadvantage with a state income tax or sales tax! Newt Gingrich and Michael Steele are standing by the RINO in NY 23 - how welcome will that make them in Republican circles? bnyoung@metrocast.net
- Niel Young, Laconia
Coming from a guy who's only contribution to the party was "too far too fast"...your off base.
- JAY TIFFANY, WARNER NH
Gee, is Fran from New Hampton the same Fran that is running her own "splinter" group, the "Reagan Republicans" with its own office and agenda? Keep up the good work Fran, you're the best thing to happen to the democrats since phone gate!
- mike, barnstead
1. McCain lost because he was (is) a fool.
2. Only a fellow fool would link New Jersey, New York and a two-bit local race in New Hampshire.
Is the Concord Monitor deciding who runs the GOP these days?
- Leo, Canterbury
The other day I heard Glen Beck say that voters should vote for the independent in NY. That they (the independents) were endorsed by different idividuals from across the US. Well, call me crazy but its NY's district not Glen Becks. Let them pick who they want not Sarah Palin or Huckabee or people from other parts of the country want. By splitting the votes they are throwing the race to the Dems. In order to save this country we got to get rid of the Dems in power, you got to give a little to get a little. Let the locals decide who they want.
- Michael King, Epping
Bill -
Re-read what you wrote. People in neighboring states didn't want the conservative agenda and the GOP is moribund. Doesn't that tell you anything? The wingers like you are out of touch with the electorate.
- Steve, Manchester
There goes Fergus again making up situations that just don't exist. He wrote:
but after learning a splinter group of disaffected conservatives would oppose him in a primary he probably could not win MacKay changed parties and is running as a Democrat.
Jim MacKay switched parties because he wants to be elected again so badly that he would flip flop on party membership. MacKay KNEW that he could not win a Republican primary against such a dynamic candidate as Lynne Blankenbeker. She brings a fresh breath of air to that seat. Blankenbeker, a nurse, military officer, and holding a law degree is bright, articulate, and vested in the future as a Mom to kids in the local school system.
Lynne ran in 2008 and decided to run again when the seat opened up after Tara Reardon resigned. It had nothing to do with any splinter groups that Fergus likes to think is hiding under Fergus's bed every night or peaking out from his closet.
When Jim Mackay was in the House as a Republican he had a real place at the table. He was included in Republican Leadership and treated as an equal even though often out of step with Republican principles. He left the party because of his desire for power and he knew he could only have a chance to be elected as a Democrat rather than against a quality primary candidate like Blankenbeker.
So will he embrace the Democrat path of spending our state into deficits that they will continue to fill with more and bigger tax increases or will he cut and run if elected and run back to the Republicans?
Jim Mackay and Fergus Cullen are literally two peas in a pod.
- Fran, New Hampton
Once we were able to get rid of Fergus as our party chair, we were hopeful that he would take his RINO philosophy and go back to Connecticut where he and his type have already wrecked the Republican party and therefore he could do no more harm. No such luck, apparently.
Instead we have the periodic pleasure of reading his drivel about how the road to success for the Republican party is for it to act like a Democrat Lite party - taxers, but not quite so bad; big spenders, but not so much; robust government regulators, but full of concern when we do; liberty limiters, but more slowly.
Fergus just doesn't get it. The Republican party in our sister New England states tried Fergus' approach for years. People in the end decided if they wanted big taxes, profligate spending, comprehensive government regulations, and nanny-state loss of liberty, then they might as well elect the real thing and not go for the Democrat Lite party. The result is a Republican party in each of those states that is moribund.
According to a recent Gallup poll, a strong plurality of voters self-classify as conservatives. They deserve - we want - a party that reflects those values. Conservatives don't want or need the slow surrender strategy of the Fergus Cullens who would take all comers so long as they put an R after their names. His is strategy that will commit the Republican party in NH to a slow death and leave conservatives with no meaningful alternative to the Democrats.
- Bill, Mont Vernon
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