One in three Americans plans to shop this weekend, according to the National Retail Federation. Ten percent of those said they planned to start between midnight and three a.m. Friday morning. Another 29 percent said they expected to be out the door before 6 a.m.

They should have read Wharton economist Joel Waldfogel's countercultural new book, "Scroogenomics: Why You Shouldn't Buy Presents for the Holidays," before they left. Before you blow your $683 that the average American is expected to spend on holiday stuff this year, consider an economist's view of gift giving.

Waldfogel observes there is a big gap between what a gift giver pays for an item and what the gift receiver would pay for it. It's not uncommon for a recipient to value a gift at only 25 percent of the purchase price: Sure, it's a nice sweater, mom, but it's not the design or color or size you would have chosen yourself. Often a recipient wouldn't pay anything for the gift because the item has zero value to her. Think Billy Bass singing fishes, Snuggies and Chia Pets. You wouldn't buy them for yourself, yet perhaps hundreds of thousands of people will inexplicably buy them as gifts for others.

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Thus the holidays cause billions of dollars of what economists call "deadweight loss," an inefficient transfer of wealth generating little or no value.

Using your credit card adds more deadweight loss. A General Accounting Office report released this month concludes the average household paid an estimated $427 in higher prices last year due to "swipe" charges. It's a great racket: The card company charges you 2 percent to use their card, gives you 1 percent cash back, and you feel happy instead of ripped off.

An economist's ideal, Waldfogel posits, is that we'd all just give each other cash. It's socially acceptable for older people -- grandparents, your aunt -- to give cash to younger people, but not the other way around. Wedding registries, in which a couple specifies exactly what the bride wants, allow guests to give cash equivalents.

This is consistent with conservative economic thinking, by the way. You get the most satisfaction when you spend your own money on what you want. You get less satisfaction when others spend their money to get you something they think you want. You get the least satisfaction when someone else -- a government bureaucrat -- spends someone else's money -- tax dollars -- to get you something the government thinks you should want if you only knew what was good for you.

But it's tacky to give or ask for cash, so instead 55 percent of us hope for gift cards, according to the Retail Federation.

The state of New Hampshire and county governments hope you'll buy gift cards, too, provided they are for more than $100 and you don't actually use them. By state law, gift certificates offered by retailers cannot expire, even if they carry a printed expiration date, but about 10 percent of cards are never redeemed. After five years, retailers are meant to report outstanding gift cards worth more than $100 to the state as abandoned property. Last year, 404 gift cards worth $53,900 were turned over to the state.

The state treasurer then makes a valiant effort to track down the rightful owner, amazingly succeeding nearly half the time in cases involving abandoned property of all kinds. (You can see if the state is keeping a present for you at missingmoney.com). If that fails, after three more years the money is shared between the state and county governments.

The value of unredeemed gift cards worth $100 or less stays with the retailer, who has already enjoyed the float as well as the benefit of inflation, which erodes the purchasing power of the card. This is why retailers might suggest giving you two $100 gift cards instead of one for $200.

New Hampshire gives consumers a much better deal than what happens in Maine, where 60 percent of the value of unused gift cards reverts to the state after just two years. Maine government picks up a couple million dollars a year this way. Maine even claims a right to your lost L.L. Bean gift card because the company is headquartered there. In Massachusetts, unused cards never escheat to the state.

Maine's sales tax is 5 percent, and the commonwealth raised its sales tax from 5 to 6.25 percent last summer. Which makes me wonder: When out-of-state legislators run into each other at the Fox Run or Rockingham Park malls, do they say hello or hide behind a rack of clothes and pretend not to see each other?

Fergus Cullen, a freelance columnist for the New Hampshire Union Leader, hopes to pass retail outlets en route to a trailhead this weekend. He can be reached at fergus@ferguscullen.com.