The consensus from political experts: New Hampshire isn't Florida.

With four candidates currently in the Republican U.S. Senate primary, and at least one more still considering running, the anticipated highest-profile New Hampshire race in 2010 will be about far more than cut-and-dried distinctions on ideology.

LAMONTAGNE

Unlike the Charlie Crist-Marco Rubio primary in Florida, the 2010 New Hampshire Senate primary is not likely to be a battle for the proverbial "soul" of the GOP.

That's the early outlook from a sampling of committed and uncommitted political observers.

AYOTTE

Kelly Ayotte, Ovide Lamontagne, James Bender and William Binnie are all speaking the same conservative language on fiscal issues, which all agree are central to the upcoming race. They all oppose raising taxes and favor strong measures to cut the deficit. They want to repeal the stimulus plan, they reject "Obamacare," and they call for slowing the growth in federal spending.

BENDER

Binnie distinguishes himself on key social issues: He is pro-choice and backs the New Hampshire same-sex marriage law with its church "opt-out" provision.

Bender, asked last week in Laconia if he was pro-life or pro-choice, reportedly said he personally is against abortion but doesn't believe the government has any role in those types of personal matters.

BINNIE

Republican magazine publisher Sean Mahoney continues to weigh a candidacy, while the lone Democratic candidate is U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes.

With the campaign expected to focus on fiscal rather than social issues, "I don't see a scenario where this primary becomes an ideological battle similar to the current U.S. Senate race in Florida," or the recent congressional election in New York state that gained national attention, said Republican political strategist Michael Dennehy.

"It's not Crist and Rubio," added political analyst and former political-science professor Dean Spiliotes. "Basically, they all pretty much sound the same so far, and that often happens in crowded primaries. They all pretty much run to the same spot."

Instead, Dennehy, Spiliotes and others say, the race will be more about who can cut through the noise to get his or her message out most effectively, who can establish himself or herself as the strongest "anti-Washington" candidate and who has the strongest Republican bona fides.

With Ayotte, a former attorney general, sitting as the perceived front-runner due to her comparatively high name recognition and her early big lead in fund-raising, the three men in the race will try to distinguish themselves not only from her, but from each other. Each will try to establish himself as the prime alternative to Ayotte.

Courting endorsements

While all the candidates are declaring themselves anti-Washington "outsiders" because none has held elected office, all are reaching out to at least one major Washington-based political action committee for help.

Ayotte held a fund-raiser at the headquarters of the National Republican Senatorial Committee in September and has received compliments, though not official endorsements, from NRSC Chairman Sen. John Cornyn, R-Tex., and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. She has the backing of outgoing Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H.

Spiliotes noted that all four are vying for the support of the powerful Club for Growth PAC, a conservative group focusing on fiscal issues that will be able to raise and spend big dollars for the candidate it ends up endorsing.

Spiliotes said that if Ayotte "gets the blessing of the Club for Growth, it's going to make it a lot harder on these other guys. If, on the other hand, they pick one of these other guys as a sort of 'go-to' fiscal conservative, then you've set up a situation where it's a race between these three guys to be the alternative to Ayotte.

"What this group does will have a lot to do with how difficult her life will be during the primary," Spiliotes said.

He said that although Ayotte is presenting herself as a conservative, if "outside conservative groups define her as a moderate, then you've got a situation where it could become a philosophical battle, even if it's more perceived than real. That would be a problem for her."

Ayotte's campaign chairman, former Gov. Steve Merrill, insists she's a conservative and she's not an "insider." He said she is mounting a traditional New Hampshire-style campaign relying on grass-roots support.

"Already, she has 80 town chairmen," he said. "Nine of 10 county sheriffs are supporting her. She is building a grass-roots organization with new faces and new volunteers and givers. And she was not recruited or persuaded to run by anyone in Washington.

"The fact that some U.S. senators think she would be a worthy colleague is a compliment I'd think any candidate in New Hampshire would want to receive," he said.

Merrill said that while Crist in Florida has been criticized by Rubio for supporting the stimulus plan and for "embracing" President Barack Obama, "that sort of connection does not exist among these Republicans in New Hampshire."

Issues of party loyalty

Greg Moore, an uncommitted GOP operative, said that while it's too early to arrive at any conclusions, Binnie "seems to be running as more of a moderate," based on his pro-choice position.

"If so," said Moore, "there is oxygen there because no one else seems to be speaking to the moderates.

"It's going to be fun to watch these candidates as they try to differentiate themselves on the issues," Moore said.

Binnie is expected to be challenged to defend his party loyalty. He contributed $1,000 to Democratic state Sen. Martha Fuller Clark's campaign when she unsuccessfully ran against Republican John E. Sununu in a 1st District congressional race in 2000. But Binnie and his wife also contributed $3,000 to Sununu in the same election.

In the 1990s, he and his wife contributed to Marty Meehan, the Democratic former Bay State congressman, to a Democratic congressional candidate in Pennsylvania, and to Democratic former Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey. But he was also a contributor to Republican former New Hampshire U.S. Rep. Bill Zeliff during the same period.

Binnie described himself in a November 2003 Chicago Tribune story as an independent who supported Bradley's presidential run in 2000 and said he would not vote for George W. Bush and was leaning toward backing Democrat Wesley Clark in the upcoming presidential primary.

Bender also contributed to Meehan, as well as Bush.

Ayotte, a legal counsel for Republican former Gov. Craig Benson, would not say in a recent interview whether she voted for Democratic Gov. John Lynch or his GOP challengers in the 2006 and 2008 elections.

Dennehy said any candidate in a primary "should be ready to prove loyalty to the party, and that's going to be a challenge for some of them, probably the least of which will be Ovide Lamontagne because he has a long history with the Republican Party."

Ayotte "has a tremendous amount of support behind her, but she is still going to have to convince Republican voters of her loyalty because she has never been in a position where she's been active in the party," said Dennehy.

'Fertile ground' for GOP

James Merrill, Lamontagne's senior adviser and a distant cousin of Steve Merrill, said his candidate ran for Congress in 1992 and for governor in 1996 as an "outsider" candidate.

Although he lost both times, he "has never been the establishment candidate, and this election is going to be about who can go to Washington and be the kind of leader who will stand up to special interests and to party bosses, as well," James Merrill said.

"When you have only two candidates, it's much easier to draw 'me-versus-you' distinctions," he said.

With four and possibly five candidates, "the question is, who's going to be the strongest leader that can deliver change," the Lamontagne campaign's Merrill said.

Ayotte's camp, rather than focusing on any philosophical differences, portrays her in the early going as the only candidate who can beat Hodes next November.

Binnie and Bender also have portrayed themselves as outsiders because they have never before run for office and are new to the political scene, having run successful businesses.

Dennehy said that overall, the election landscape is fertile for the Republicans.

"Republican and conservative voters and independent voters are more energized than they've been in years, if not decades," he said. "That is something the Republican candidates will want to tap into. The question will be, which candidate can capitalize on those voters who are energized?"