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Jay Buckey: We can't have cheap oil and alternative fuels

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By JAY BUCKEY

On the campaign trail, some candidates are taking an "all of the above" approach to energy policy. They want us to "drill, baby, drill" and promote other renewable energy sources, too.

At first, this seems appealing. Energy is a big problem, and who doesn't want to look at all the solutions? Yet, as anyone who has ever taken a multiple-choice test knows, "all of the above" isn't always the right answer. What if your doctor took an "all of the above" approach to your health care? He or she might advise both watchful waiting and immediate surgery. Or what if the quarterback took the snap and decided to simultaneously hand off and pass?

An "all of the above" approach doesn't work when the options are fundamentally incompatible. That's why the "all of the above" or so-called "balanced" energy policies out there don't make sense. We can't "drill, baby, drill" and become leaders in alternative energy.

Our national policy, from the oil depletion allowance to tax deductions to help with drilling costs, has been heavily tilted toward oil. We have invested so much in exploring, refining and transporting oil that currently no other transportation fuel can beat it for price, convenience and availability. For alternative transportation fuels to succeed, they will have to compete against this oil monopoly. It's not just that you can't spend money on everything, it's that investing in oil undermines the successful growth of renewables.

So "all of the above" isn't going to work; we have to choose between options A or B. Option A is to stick with the oil-based economy we have -- and work harder to keep it going. This would mean doing whatever it takes to secure access to foreign oil and investing heavily to increase domestic supplies.

It would also mean that Iraq and other countries in the Persian Gulf would become even more important to us than they already are. We would need to compete for influence in every major oil-producing region. Oil-producing countries would develop increasing power over us. Russia has already used energy as a weapon against Europe; what is to stop it from blackmailing the United States in the same way if it gets the chance?

Some politicians may argue that we could avoid giving oil-producing countries more influence by boosting our own domestic production -- the "drill, baby, drill" plan.

"Drill, baby, drill" might have been a great proposal in 1908. But domestic oil production peaked in 1971 and has been going down since. If domestic oil supplies could be increased easily just by drilling more, why -- despite more than 30 years of trying and pro-oil national policy -- haven't oil companies been able to boost U.S. production?

Getting new domestic oil supplies is just getting harder and more expensive. If we are willing to spend that money and invest in that effort, we should look at our second option.

Option B is for the United States to become the unquestioned world leader in renewable energy. This is an area where we could truly excel. No other country in the world can match the United States in innovation and technical excellence. But we have to face the hard facts of economics.

Just about any new, promising energy technology will be more expensive than oil at the outset. Because oil has the monopoly on transportation fuel, new transportation fuels will have to beat the price of oil to succeed. Companies or individuals wanting to invest heavily in new renewable energy technologies face huge risks. They must think seriously about what could happen if a national effort to increase petroleum supplies were even temporarily successful, or if foreign suppliers pushed the price down.

During the first energy crisis in the 1970s and 1980s, many new energy companies went bankrupt when oil prices fell and made alternative technologies look like expensive white elephants. No matter how much would-be investors love the planet, no one wants to gamble enormous sums of money when national policy or foreign suppliers could undercut the investment at any time.

So we must decide. National policy has to be either to increase oil supplies or to be first in renewables. It can't be both. To be first in renewables, we have to take the pain now. We need to put a floor under the price of a barrel of oil and not let prices fall below that level. This won't be easy, but as each year passes, our outlook will improve. Investors will take chances on renewables. New technologies will be refined and brought to market. We won't depend on fuel from the Persian Gulf to power our cars, homes and businesses.

If we take the oil route, we might postpone the pain -- for a time. But our situation would worsen each year. Our dependency on foreign oil would deepen. Promising new renewable energy technologies, and the jobs they produce, would be developed elsewhere. Our military would have to be ready to secure access to oil, which could lead us into international conflicts we could not control. Ultimately, our status as a world economic power could be at stake.

We need to recognize the "all of the above" and "balanced" energy proposals for what they are: misleading marketing ploys to keep the status quo. They may sound good, but they put our future at risk. Every year we postpone action, the worse our economic and military prospects will become.

Dr. Jay Buckey is a professor of medicine at Dartmouth Medical School and an adjunct professor of engineering at Dartmouth's Thayer School of Engineering. These opinions are his own and not necessarily those of Dartmouth College.

YOUR COMMENTS


I guess Jay Buckey doesn't believe in insurance. Or production and development delays. Or promotion of domestic jobs and exploitation of known domestic resources in lieu of purchasing more from outside the US.

It appears that Jay Buckey thinks that everything will work out, right on time, and we won't miss a step. Biofuels will flood the market, fossil fuel will become a thing of the past, and energy prices will go down.

He says we can't promote alternative fuels and oile exploration. Why not?

He says we must "take the pain now" and choose alternative fuels over fossil fuels.

This is a great time to "take the pain", Jay. Energy prices continue to rise (which affects the price of every good) while job growth is stagnant. Our govt is on the verge of committing almost $1 trillion to bail out the wizards of Wall St, and Jay Buckey says this is the time to take the leap with both feet toward alternative energy.

Jay says energy prices will go up, but that's okay. Well, Jay, obviousy you aren't much of a supporter of US and NH industry. As energy costs continue to rise, it's harder and harder for industry to stay afloat. Add the "credit crisis", and industry gets less and less help from lenders. Once a business shuts its doors, they may not re-open. That's why I think it's paramount that this country do whatever it takes to keep its manufacturing and industrial jobs. Many businesses are in a precarious postition, and any further increase in cost could put them over. Jay Buckey seems to be saying that they should, in effect, take one for the team and commit to higher costs in the short-term, in exchange for Buckey's promised land, which will apparently arrive just when he says it will, because that always happens in the development of new technologies.

Energy self-reliance and self-sufficiency will increase as alternative fuels progress, but in the meantime I think it's irresponsible to overlook any option.
- John, Springfield

Mr. Donoghue, It is not agreed upon that that mankind is ruining our environment with carbon dioxide emissions I find it ironic that the very panel you reference, the United Nations Panel on Climate Change, reported that no evidence exists to suggest that mankind affects global warming. It's on their first report page one. There not only are many questions as to whether mankind can affect the global climate but there are questions that perhaps global warming itself isn't actually occurring. What we really have is a shortage of is explanations on how carbon dioxide could possibly be a global warming gas especially given the fact that it's not particularly good at retaining heat in small scale testing and the density of carbon dioxide gas needed to retain heat is greater than the minimum level which can sustain oxygen breathing life. There are just so many unanswered questions that it just seems crazy to bankrupt our own future and even crazier that of future generations on an unsubstantiated theory.
- Don Diamant, Milton, NH

Comrade Buckey in his own words explaining why a centrally planned economy does not work.

The conceited planner like Buckey sees only two options for everyone, while a free economy innovates and discovers new energy sources and techniques and gets investors to spend money in search of profit. Comrade Buckey and his ilk will take the money from the producers and spend it on "alternative sources" because they think they are smarter than the rest of the entire population combined.
- Brian Fellers, Grafton NH

Our oil-based transportation economy is not going away anytime soon- so of course we need to keep importing and producing oil. However, opening up more areas for drilling in the US will only have a tiny effect- a couple of percentage points- in overall global supply, to which we are inextricably linked. The era of huge, untapped, easily accessible reserves is over.

Given these facts, and the consensus that the burning of fossil fuels is having a detrimental- and possibly catastrophic- effect on our environment through global climate change, the development of alternative, renewable sources of energy is an absolute necessity. Right now. Wind and solar power are proven technologies that work. Today.

Do market forces favor them right now? No.

Unfortunately, as the recent economic meltdown has shown us, the free market cannot always be counted on to do the right thing. At least not before it's too late.
- Dave, Sandwich, NH

One very important issue not mentioned is the threat of global warming now almost universally agreed to be occuring except by the most ostrich-like defenders of (i.e. those who profit from) the status quo. What of the incalcuable associated costs? Atmospheric CO2 is now rising faster than even the most pessimistic estimates of a year or two ago according to the International Panel on Climate Change.

There is no single or immediate solution to transitioning the world's economy away from fossil carbon based fuels and the trillions in associated infrastructure, military expenditure (oh yes, you have to add alot of that into the cost of oil) but it MUST occur and soon. Invest no more in fossil fuels. Stop subsidizing fossil fuels. Phase out the old technology and run an expanded grid on the latest designs and hardened nuclear facilities. Dispose of nuclear waste in concrete casks jettisoned into millions of years old sediment drifts in the deep south Pacific. A large portion of our transportation fuels will be liquid it seems for the forseeable future. Heavily dilute fossil with non-food feed stock bio-based fuels. The technology exists and must be refined and scaled. Invest heavily and rapidly into the development of any and all renewable technologies and the market will sort them out after a time. I agree with Dr. Buckey that the US can and should lead the world in these efforts before someone else does.
- Terence Donoghue, Meriden

I can't wait until we are out of oil. Then the oil lovers won't have a leg to stand on.
- Tim, Manchester, NH

Mr. Buckley, as others have pointed out so eloquently you are wrong on all accounts. I can only add that by continuing to use oil it should not preclude us from developing alternative energy. Alternative energy that will be an effective and affordable option that can be massed produced in the future which doesn't describe any of the alternative energy options available today. It's kind of like saying I need to go on a diet so lets go burn down all the supermarkets.
- Don Diamant, Milton, NH

William,

We can not afford to keep our heads in the sand!

People laughed at JFK when he said we'd have a man on the moon in 10 years. People said it was impossible and the technology was not there.

If the technology is not possible why is it that Germany is producing 30% of it's electricity with Solar Power? Why is Denmark producing most of its needs with wind power?

Oui! It is time for Americans to get their heads out of the sand!
- Jeff, Dover, NH

There is one major problem with Dr. Buckey's approach: We are decades away from having any viable, renewable energy source. In fact, it might not even be possible.

Contrary to what he supposed, we have invested in solar, water, wind and hybrid energy sources and they all come with risks, are expensive and as as of today, none are able to be mass produced and maintained.

The only option we have is to remain oil based until those technologies are found to be unreasonable or catch up.

There is a Russian saying that goes something like this: "Promising a starving man today that you will feed him next Wednesday, does not help him today and will not make him look forward to Wednesday."

We cannot forsake oil at the cost of our economy now for the hope of getting fed next Wednesday.
- William Simpso, Concord

"Drill, baby, drill" might have been a great proposal in 1908. But domestic oil production peaked in 1971 and has been going down since. If domestic oil supplies could be increased easily just by drilling more, why -- despite more than 30 years of trying and pro-oil national policy -- haven't oil companies been able to boost U.S. production"
Jay, you are kidding right. For 30 years congress and its "green" extremist allies have bent over backwards to restrict domestic oil exploration and production/refining. Trying to squeeze more juice from the same orange only goes so far. You need to tap new ones, and the same goes for oil, we need to tap other known reserves and find new one, which congress has refused to allow. Your basic dishonesty on this point taints your entire article. What else are you failing to tell us?
- jeff, Goffstown

Finally an environmentalist is truthful. Thank you, Dr. Buckley, for your honesty.

Dr. Buckley eloquently makes the case for keeping oil cost high so that alternative energy sources become economical and make sense for industries to make the development investments needed.

Of course, his thinking is wrong, albeit honestly so. A strong economy needs lots of affordable energy and transportation needs petroleum based fuels. There is no way around that fact today or in the near future. So, drill baby drill, makes sense to add to the world's supply of oil. Supply up = cost down.

There is also the national security issue. Dependence upon foreign sources for 70% of our transportation is a big risk and is senseless when we are sitting on enough of our own resources to greatly reduce that dependence.
- John Bachman, Amherst

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