John DiStaso's Granite Status: GOP activists await Sununu decision

John DiStaso, the New Hampshire Union Leader's senior political writer, began writing "Granite Status" in 1982. His influential reports on behind-the-scenes politics in the first-primary state are must reading every Thursday for insiders from Concord to Washington, D.C. Watch for "Granite Status" updates on UnionLeader.com whenever New Hampshire political news breaks.

WAITING FOR SUNUNU. With the dust now apparently settled from the conclusion of the Judd Gregg/Obama melodrama "As the Cabinet Turns," it appears as certain as anything can be in politics that the GOP senator will not seek reelection next year. He told us last Friday that he and his wife, Kathy, had made that decision before his nomination as commerce secretary.

With an open Senate seat, potential Republican candidates could emerge from the "usual suspect" list or the ranks of the politically unknown. Who's to say that a year from now, there won't be a new name, someone from the private sector, front and center?

But for the moment, Republican activists remain enamored of John E. Sununu. The message consistently in GOP circles is that Sununu has first dibs on a candidacy, but they're hoping that he sends a message relatively soon on his plans so that others can begin raising money if he's not interested.

Coincidentally, last evening, Time Warner Cable Inc. announced that Sununu has been named to its board of directors.

After spending $9 million in the 2008 election loss to Jeanne Shaheen, Sununu's campaign finance committee ended the year with $104,187 on hand, according to figures recently posted on the Federal Election Commission's Web site.

Not great, but better than the only announced candidate for Gregg's seat. Democrat Paul Hodes ended the year with only $56,000 in his congressional campaign account.

In the end, neither will have a problem raising money, however.

Gregg, by the way, walks away with $843,787 in his campaign finance committee as of Dec. 31, money he can use to make contributions, without limits, to any national, state or local political party, or contribute to any candidate under the limits set out by state law, according to the FEC. No personal use allowed.

STEVE SPEAKS? There are no direct quotes, but Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post apparently actually got to talk to former Gov. Steve Merrill.

Cillizza reported last Friday that Merrill told him he will defer to Sununu but would consider running for the Senate if Sununu does not.

HODES ON THE WEB. The Hodes camp, meanwhile, has a Paul Hodes for U.S. Senate Web site up already.

It debuted a week ago and is limited to an e-mail sign-up, Hodes' biography, a link to his official announcement statement and (of course) a contribution link to ActBlue.com.

Rumblings continue, meanwhile, that Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is moving from the "not-ruling-it-out" stage to the "seriously considering it" stage.

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FRED FOLLOW-UP. Our report last week on Nashua businessman and former Barack Obama supporter Fred Tausch's $100,000 effort to stir up opposition to the stimulus package was the first in a series of reports about him nationally.

Tausch and his STEWARD (Stimulate The Economy Without Accumulating Debt) Web site was mentioned on Politico.com, Townhall.com, National Review Online and other Web logs.

He also received about 2,100 "signatures" on his online petition asking politicians to "re-think" the size of the plan.

Now that the stimulus package has passed, Tausch says he will monitor how the money is spent and will flush out details of additional expenditures called for in the other huge federal spending bill on the way.

THE DOG BAN LIVES. Supporters of legislation to outlaw greyhound racing in New Hampshire are optimistic they can pass their bill on the House floor even if it emerges from the House Local and Regulated Revenues Committee without a recommendation.

During a lengthy committee executive session Tuesday, proponents offered an amendment to clarify that the bill would not apply to horse racing at Rockingham Park. Another amendment moved the effective date back a year, to January 2011.

After several votes, no clear consensus emerged on what to do with the legislation, and the committee session will continue (weather permitting) today.

An alternative bill that would have given the two remaining greyhound tracks the option of taking bets with or without live racing was soundly defeated by the committee.

A SPLIT GOP. In the past week, the UNH Survey Center rolled out polls showing President Barack Obama and Gov. John Lynch with strong public approval in all political demographics.

Obama's approval rating in the Feb. 5-9 survey of 619 New Hampshire adults was 66 percent, with only 21 disapproving; Lynch had an approval/disapproval rating of an amazing 74/12 percent.

The more disturbing news for hard-core GOP partisans is that Republicans are split on Obama, with 39 percent approving of him and 44 percent disapproving.

The most disturbing news for Republican partisans is that the party is fairly well united when it comes to Lynch, with 66 percent of self-identified Republicans expressing approval and only 19 percent disapproving.

Independents strongly support the two Democrats: 69 percent approve of Lynch and 66 percent approve of Obama.

Point of fact: The polls were taken prior to both the passage of the $787 billion stimulus package Obama championed and Lynch's budget roll out.

THE CONSPIRACY REPORT. Nearly a month after he became the "former" chairman of the state Republican Party, Fergus Cullen is keeping his name "out there" in the political community.

His new effort is an e-mail newsletter called The Conspiracy Report, a play on Hillary Clinton's famous reference to The Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy.

His first edition features contains an op-ed on Lynch, stating in part, "By agreeing to appoint a Republican to fill the seat, Lynch made lasting enemies among activists in his own party and may have guaranteed a primary opponent in a future campaign."

"I don't want to put too much emphasis on it," Cullen says, "but I want to continue to be a voice on New Hampshire and issues."

Cullen says there is no connection between his Conspiracy Report and his interest in at least looking at a possible run for office.

But we understand that Cullen likes the idea of a congressional run if Shea-Porter runs for the Senate. Under those circumstances, however, he'd likely be in a crowded field, including two-time candidate John Stephen, who has privately made it known that he'd be interested as well.

NO HARD FEELINGS. Less than two weeks before Gregg was nominated as commerce secretary, he said that he had been invited by Obama to a "financial responsibility summit" to discuss the nation's long-term financial challenges and potential entitlement reforms. The summit is being held Monday and although a lot has happened in the past three weeks, Gregg is still invited to the White House meeting.

Gregg says he will "certainly do everything I can to work with the President and others in Congress" to head off the coming "financial tsunami," as he calls it.

QUICK TAKES:

--Former Executive Councilor and Nashua Mayor Bernie Streeter plans his 18th annual Wild Irish Breakfast, benefitting The PLUS Company, for St. Patrick's Day morning at the Radisson Nashua Hotel. Sharing the head table will be Lynch, state GOP chair and former Gov. John H. Sununu and state Democratic Chair Ray Buckley.

--Former GOP presidential candidate Mike Huckabee's national "HuckPAC" plans a New Hampshire "kickoff" event Feb. 26 in Amherst.

--Granite State Progress plans to celebrate passage of the stimulus package with a "Thank-You Card Signing" to Shaheen, Hodes and Shea-Porter at mid-day today at the State House cafeteria.

John DiStaso is senior political reporter of the New Hampshire Union Leader.