John DiStaso, the New Hampshire Union Leader's senior political writer, began writing "Granite Status" in 1982. His influential reports on behind-the-scenes politics in the first-primary state are must reading every Thursday for insiders from Concord to Washington, D.C. Watch for "Granite Status" updates on UnionLeader.com whenever New Hampshire political news breaks.

REPORTS OF of New Hampshire as a firewall for Hillary Clinton have apparently been greatly exaggerated.

New Hampshire is no longer her firewall. It's a battleground, a free for all, and -- dare we say? -- a potential last stand for the former Granite State Democratic frontrunner.

For Barack Obama, whose steady rise here culminated yesterday with one poll showing him in a tie with Clinton, another showing him slightly ahead and a third showing him trailing but gaining, it's now his turn to be at least a co-frontrunner instead of the proverbial hunter. How will he handle the heat?

Close and closer

For those who haven't seen them yet, here are the numbers.

The CNN/WMUR poll, completed by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center Dec. 6-10 and released early yesterday morning, showed Clinton with 31 percent, Obama with 30 percent, John Edwards with 16 percent and Bill Richardson with 7 percent.

A month ago, the same poll showed Clinton leading Obama 36 to 22 percent, with Edwards at 13 percent and Richardson at 12 percent.

A poll by Rasmussen Reports showed Obama now leading Clinton 31 to 28 percent, with Edwards at 17 percent and Richardson at 8 percent. The same poll showed her with a 7-point lead two weeks ago and a 10-point lead a month ago.

A separate poll by Suffolk University and WHDH in Boston showed Clinton leading Obama 33 to 26 percent, with Edwards at 15 percent.

Two polls released yesterday gauged the GOP race; both showed Mitt Romney's lead remaining strong.

The CNN/WMUR poll showed him with 32 percent, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani tied at 19 percent and Mike Huckabee at 9 percent. The margin of error for both CNN/WMUR polls is 5 percent.

The Suffolk/WHDH poll showed Romney with 31 percent, McCain at 19 percent, Giuliani at 17 percent and Huckabee at 10 percent. The margin of error for both of these polls is 5.6 percent.

Now what?

While they're statistically tied in two of the three polls, Clinton and Obama are going in opposite directions. With three weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses and 26 days until the leadoff primary, will momentum in each direction slow? Will we see more shifts? How many? Or will the race be a virtual tie going into primary day, which will make it a genuine test of their organizations' get-out-the-vote efforts?

What will the Clinton and Obama campaigns do from here? Clinton will reportedly "go comparative," if not negative, in the next few days.

The message from her very nervous camp yesterday was that it was known all along that the race would tighten; it's not surprising that Obama caught fire after the mountains of positive Oprah Winfrey-generated media attention he has received in the past week; and he is peaking too soon.

"We always knew it wasn't going to be a rose garden," said Clinton state co-chair Bill Shaheen. "Now we roll up our sleeves."

Shaheen invoked the 2006 victory by new Obama supporter Rep. Carol Shea-Porter to bolster his contention that polls mean little even at this point.

"She was down by 25 percentage points with three weeks to go and no money," Shaheen said. She won.

"It just shows why I don't spend a lot of time analyzing polls," he said.

Like most who follow primary politics, the Obama camp also expected that the race would eventually tighten and now believes it is poised to pull ahead.

The campaign worked early on to build an effective campaign organization. Through the summer, it pulled together all sorts of coalitions -- holding roundtables with religious leaders, for instance -- and even hosting "book club" meetings and issues forums with well-versed supporters. Tonight, for example, the campaign will hold a rural policy forum in Gorham headed by a panel to include former state Commissioner of Agriculture Steve Taylor.

Groups such as these have now coalesced and will be an asset in the get-out-the-vote effort.

The race may turn again -- and again -- before and Jan. 3 and 8, but the current shift in momentum began after the late October debate in Philadelphia, in which Clinton botched a question on drivers licenses for illegal aliens and admitted later that overall, she was not at her best.

The fallout from that performance came as rank-and-file voters here were beginning to tune in.

Since then, Clinton has tried various strategies, including an attack mode, but so far, it hasn't stopped her fall and Obama's rise.

Add to that the week of attention Obama received from the Oprah tour in Iowa, South Carolina and New Hampshire, during the same time the polls were taken, and today it appears the race is up for grabs.

"It's been a year this week (Dec. 10) that Barack Obama came to New Hampshire for the first time and stood before a crowd of 1,500 Democrats," said campaign state co-chairman Jim Demers. "It took a few months for the voters to tune in and to learn about him, and now they obviously feel comfortable with him and that's why we're seeing this dramatic swing.

"We've quietly built this organization all across the state and now we're starting to see the positive results," said Demers.

Shaheen: Drugs an issue

Ned Helms, another Obama state co-chair, said, "Our only concern is that with this extraordinary shift in momentum we don't get an extraordinary shift in tone. I don't think that attacking other people or going negative on television or with literature is a tactic we should be dealing with right now."

Ironically, about the same moment that Helms made that comment, the Washington Post was reporting that his old friend, the aforementioned Shaheen, warned in an interview that the GOP would have a field day with Obama's drug use admission if he were the nominee. It was the most direct comment on the subject yet by a Clinton campaign official.

"The Republicans are not going to give up without a fight," Shaheen reportedly said, "and one of the things they're certainly going to jump on is his drug use."

Shaheen said Obama has invited further questions by being so open on the topic.

"It'll be, 'When was the last time? Did you ever give drugs to anyone? Did you sell them to anyone?'" Shaheen said. "There are so many openings for Republican dirty tricks. It's hard to overcome."

Helms did not return our calls seeking a direct response, but in a statement, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said, "Hillary Clinton said attacking other Democrats is the 'fun part' of this campaign, and now she's moved from Barack Obama's kindergarten years to his teenage years in an increasingly desperate effort to slow her slide in the polls.

"Senator Clinton's campaign is recycling old news that Barack Obama has been candid about in a book he wrote years ago," Plouffe said, "and he's talked about the lessons he's learned from these mistakes with young people all across the country. He plans on winning this campaign by focusing on the issues that actually matter to the American people."

Meanwhile, a local Obama supporter who asked not to be named quipped, "This kind of behavior is not going to be helpful to Jeanne Shaheen's run for the U.S. Senate next year, when this primary is over."

The Clinton campaign last night issued a statement saying that Bill Shaheen's comments "were not authorized or condoned by the campaign in any way."

►Obama backers accuse Clinton campaign of personal attacks (1)
►AP: Bill Shaheen apologizes for remarks about Obama

Get out the vote

Demers, meanwhile, said his campaign is ready to turn out voters.

He said Obama's first state get-out-the-vote strategy session, held recently in Peterborough, turned out 100 people, while 80 attended an Exeter session.

"When you start adding up all those small groups, before you know it you have thousands of people," Demers said. "Combine that with the college students who will be arriving when they go on break and the Obama campaign will have a gigantic effort."

But don't sell Clinton short on that score. Her campaign has been doing all of the necessary groundwork as well. It will be an interesting test of competing strengths.

The Republicans

After months of talk about how Mitt Romney's lead here has been almost entirely based on name recognition generated by the fact that he's a Massachusetts neighbor who has a second home in Wolfeboro, and about his lead being soft and ready to crumble, it's now Dec. 13 and his lead has not shrunk.

Last month, he led John McCain, 33 to 18 percent. This week, it's 32 to 19 percent.

The numbers are apparently still soft throughout the Republican "universe," with 55 percent of likely GOP primary voters saying in the CNN/WMUR poll they have yet to make a final decision. Still, it's clearly disappointing news for Huckabee, who has yet to transfer his Iowa momentum to New Hampshire. It's also a let-down for McCain, who has focused a greater percentage of his time and energy on New Hampshire than any other candidate and has not moved up.

There's no evidence or indication that Romney is generating an Obama-like fervor here. But neither are McCain, Giuliani or Huckabee.

No negativity

No matter how tough it gets, McCain won't go negative, says national political director Mike Dennehy. He said, in fact, that the campaign is considering formally urging the other campaigns not to air attack ads.

Romney has done just that in Iowa, targeting Huckabee, who has overtaken Romney's lead there. But with a comfortable lead here, it would be surprising if Romney takes the same approach.

Edwards' plight

John Edwards continues to trail in New Hampshire. His campaign's hope rests on the Obama-Clinton fight escalating to the point that frustrated voters will turn to him.

While he may not have Oprah Winfrey's support, Edwards does have a couple of veteran rockers in his corner.

Jackson Browne and Bonnie Raitt will come to the state next Tuesday and Wednesday to accompany Edwards at town hall meetings in Lebanon, Keene, Nashua, Portsmouth and Manchester.

'El Tiante,' Norris, et al

While McCain picked up the support of Red Sox hero Curt Schilling last week, retired star Luis Tiant is backing Richardson and will appear at an event at the Alpine Club in Manchester on Sunday evening.

Huckabee returns tomorrow, Saturday and Sunday with actor Chuck Norris for stops in Boscawen, Tilton, Berlin, Littleton and Londonderry.

Edwards yesterday also picked up the endorsement of the New Hampshire Freedom to Marry Coalition for his commitment to LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender) issues.

Edwards, like the other candidates, does not support gay marriage but, according to chairman executive director state Rep. Mo Baxley, is the strongest candidate across the board on anti-discrimination and equal rights.

John DiStaso is senior political reporter of the New Hampshire Union Leader and Sunday News.