SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE. Campaign consultants and candidate handlers can spin all they want, but it's clear:

Tuesday's New Hampshire primary is a must-win for several candidates and a potential last stand for others.

For those who have been leading in the polls and have put the lion's share of their resources and efforts into the Granite State, there is no expectations game. The only expectation is to win.

It's a different story for those not in the top two positions on each side. A strong third-place finish here by Mike Huckabee, for instance, especially coming off a strong showing in the Iowa caucus, would keep him viable moving forward. On the other hand, a fourth-place finish by Rudy Giuliani would be a severe blow, if not devastating, regardless of his campaign's arguments to the contrary.

John Edwards? Should he finish a strong third -- close to the second-place finisher -- he's in good shape. But should he drop below Bill Richardson, which is unlikely but possible, he's in trouble.

For Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republicans Mitt Romney and John McCain, second-place won't do. Barack Obama may be able to get away with a strong second place. But an Obama win would likely send him to the nomination.

Clinton and Romney led their respective fields throughout 2007. They then saw their leads evaporate. New Hampshire was supposed to be Clinton country -- her firewall. Romney is New Hampshire's neighbor and a part-time resident of Wolfeboro. The state was to be his firewall, too. They're expected to win, and they could not convincingly explain away a loss.

McCain has indeed come back from the dead, but he did so by all but ignoring Iowa, while Romney campaigned heavily in both states. McCain has made such an investment in New Hampshire and has been the beneficiary of late momentum generated by a series of newspaper endorsements that now, he cannot afford to lose.

As for Clinton and Obama, each had much at stake in the Iowa caucuses yesterday. But they have more at stake on Tuesday -- the first real election of the campaign.

And, by the way, it looks to be a historic primary. Secretary of State Bill Gardner said he will firm up his figures for release today but expects the total number of voters to far exceed 400,000, topping the previous record, in 1992, of 396,000.

Clinton and Obama's challenge

For Clinton, the challenge is to hold on to what she's got. Both she and Obama must reach out for undecided voters, of course, but it's even more critical now that Obama closes the deal with those who favor him but remain unsure if they will vote for him on Tuesday. He must eliminate doubts about his experience and electability in the general election, just as Clinton must make a last effort to deal with her inability to prove to most voters that she is honest and likable.

Although most polling indicates Clinton and Obama are in a dead heat, on paper at least, both move to primary day with different sets of advantages and weaknesses.

They are illustrated in recent polling by the University of New Hampshire. This week's CNN/WMUR poll by UNH shows that while only 42 percent of likely Democratic primary voters say they have definitely decided who they will vote for, among that group, Clinton is supported by 46 percent, while only 28 percent named Obama and 18 percent named Edwards. Put another way, 56 percent of Clinton's supporters and 39 percent of Obama's supporters said they have definitely decided who they will vote for.

If that's accurate, it means Clinton has deeper, more committed support -- support less likely to stray. She leads among self-identified Democrats, 37 to 29 percent, while Obama leads among self-identified independents, 34 to 29 percent, with 18 percent favoring Edwards.

Clinton's challenge is to make sure those committed supporters stay put.

She has consistently led New Hampshire polling on the question of who is best equipped on the issues facing the nation. Voters are most comfortable with her on Iraq, the economy and, overwhelmingly, on health care.

Democratic primary voters have so far named her as the candidate with the right experience to be President. (In the latest polls, she was cited by 45 percent, Obama by 13 percent and Edwards by 10 percent). And she has been viewed as the candidate with the best chance of defeating the Republican nominee in November.

But UNH pollster and associate political science professor Andrew Smith said all of that was at risk in yesterday's Iowa caucus. He said an Obama win would shake confidence in Clinton's electability and would even shrink or eliminate her edge in the experience category.

"If voters are voting for you only because they think you are electable, if she loses in Iowa, she will damage her perceived electability," he said.

Obama has consistently had the edge over Clinton in the personality areas and in the broad area of "most likely to bring about change."

It's important to note that after a year of hand-to-hand, retail politicking, Granite State Democratic voters view him as the most honest, while Clinton is third, also behind Edwards. Obama is also by far the most "liked" Democrat. The latest poll showed him drawing 41 percent in that category, followed by Edwards with 21 percent and Clinton with only 17 percent.

Smith puts more stock in Obama's strengths than Clinton's.

"There are so few differences among the candidates on the issues, that I don't think the voting issues are of much use to voters," he said. "Beyond the insiders who will parse one health plan versus another, voters are really looking for candidate characteristics."

We'll see.

Romney, McCain and who?

Now that McCain has caught Romney, can he hold that lead? Has he peaked a bit too early?

A Romney defeat in last night's Iowa results would be a potentially fatal blow and make a New Hampshire win mandatory. A Romney win last night could propel him to a win here, and to the nomination.

A defeat for McCain on Tuesday will make New Hampshire his first -- and probably his last -- stand, although his campaign argues that he can move on if he finishes a close second.

As it did throughout 2007, the GOP race remains even more fluid than the Democratic contest. Earlier this week, only one-third of Republican primary voters claimed to have made a final decision. Only 39 percent of those who name Romney as their favorite and 36 percent of those who name McCain said they have definitely decided on a candidate, while 39 percent of those who pick McCain as a favorite say they have no idea if he -- or who -- will be their final choice.

Two constants in recent months have been the steady downward glide path of Giuliani and Huckabee's inability to catch on. McCain has benefitted at Giuliani's expense, while Romney, despite the perception that he has dropped, has actually lost only four percentage points since mid-November, at least according to UNH polls.

Romney holds small edges on the key domestic issues of the economy and illegal immigration, while McCain dominates his opponents on the Iraq war and now, on terrorism in general, which had been Giuliani's bread-and-butter issue.

Going into yesterday's Iowa caucus, Romney was viewed as the Republican best positioned to win in November and as the most likable, with McCain viewed as the candidate with the right experience to be President and, by far, the most honest.

On the ground

So how will the candidates close the deal? By being here non-stop, of course. With a new round of closing television ads. And by getting out the vote.

Clinton spokesman Doug Hattaway says that since her supporters appear to be more committed, "our get-out-the-vote effort is the big part of winning it."

Bill Clinton will be in New Hampshire non-stop beginning today "with a lot of other surrogates. We will have more than 1,000 New Hampshire volunteers and 1,000 more coming in from out-of-state to try to persuade the undecided."

Hattaway said Clinton supporters have "already knocked on more than 330,000 doors -- 100,000 this past weekend alone. We've done more than 1.4 million phone calls and they will obviously continue through the weekend. We have more than 200 paid staff on the ground in addition to the volunteers."

For the most part, the endorsements have already been made but the Clinton campaign is proud of the late backing of Manchester's Elaine Bouley, the manager of the Red Arrow Diner, who has voted Republican in the past and, according to Hattaway, has children who are uninsured. Also, state Sen. Lou D'Allesandro, a former Edwards supporter, confirms he has been taped for a potential television ad for the Clinton campaign. D'Allesandro said he simply looks into the camera and professes his support for Clinton and does not mention Edwards.

The Obama and Edwards campaigns take a back seat to no one on the ground.

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe has said that 100 field staff have made 1.6 million calls and knocked on 300,000 doors. That was as of New Year's Day.

Yesterday, as Iowans prepared to caucus, Obama's campaign headquarters in Manchester was bursting with activity as the field staff was gathering supplies and moving out to 100 staging locations throughout the state.

Obama spokesman Reid Cherlin said his campaign will knock on "hundreds of thousands of doors" and has more than 2,000 in-state volunteers, led by 700 town and city captains, ready to go. Volunteers are stationed on college campuses ready to bring supporters to the polls.

Edwards campaign manager David Bonior's recent internal memo on field operations says that since Dec. 15, the campaign has made 250,000 calls to New Hampshire voters, 80 percent of them by volunteers. The campaign knocked on 60,000 doors in that two-week period, and in the week between Christmas and New Year's Day, volunteers worked more than 1,000 shifts.

The Republican side is similar. McCain and Romney are viewed as having the most efficient ground organizations, although if Giuliani has been serious about the hundreds of supporters he has publicly listed as members of one coalition or another, now is the time to put them in action.

McCain political director Mike Dennehy said that beginning today, 15,000 volunteer calls daily will be made from several phone banks statewide.

"We're trying to connect with our supporters and ask them to talk to their neighbors," he said. "We'll try to identify new supporters. We think it's obvious that Republicans are starting to close ranks around John McCain."

Dennehy said independent Sen. Joe Lieberman's support has been invaluable in efforts to attract Democratic-leaning independents. Lieberman finished fifth in the 2004 Democratic primary.

McCain today will unveil former U.S. Rep. Charlie Bass as his latest endorsement.

His final television ad recalls his landslide victory in the 2000 primary. He looks into the camera and says, "Once again, I need your help."

Sen. Judd Gregg will be at Romney's side for the duration, but strangely, considering his popularity among New Hampshire Republicans, the senior senator has kept a low profile.

Who's not coming to dinner, brunch?

Thousands of New Hampshire Democratic activists and hundreds of reporters and television and radio crews worldwide will descend on Milford tonight for a record-breaking Democratic Party "100 Club" dinner.

Obama, Clinton, Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden also will attend the event at the Hampshire Dome at Hampshire Hills. But not John Edwards.

Instead, Edwards will be conducting a town hall in Portsmouth.

Campaign sources insist he's not "blowing off" the party dinner and raised about $16,000 for the event. But the fact is, the source said, "There will be maybe 10 undecided voters in that room and the goal is to get in front of as many undecided voters as possible" in the short time remaining.

Also scheduled to be in attendance tonight is one Howard Dean, the Democratic national chairman, who tried to dilute the impact of this year's primary on the nominating process by supporting the placement of the Nevada caucus between the Iowa caucus and the primary. Needless to say, Dean's effort didn't quite work as planned.

Democratic Party spokesman Pia Carusone said fire officials have "limited" attendance at the Hampshire Dome to 3,600 people. She said the party has sold between 3,100 and 3,200 tickets at $100 each and about 300 tickets at $500 each for a pre-dinner private reception. There also are higher levels of sponsorship and Carusone said the party expects to net -- ready? -- about $400,000.

According to a list provided by the party, more than 230 journalists are credentialed for the dinner. And if they're credentialed for the dinner, it means they -- and more -- will be here through the primary.

Covering the dinner will be all the major networks and other usual national media types. Also credentialed from overseas are crews from Japan, France, Russian State Television and Radio, the Oriental Morning Post from China, the Haiti Press Network, the Italian News Agency, German television, a Danish newspaper -- and more.

Chair Ray Buckley said the whole thing is "mind-blowing" when he thinks back to years gone by when the party struggled to put 300 people in a room in order to raise $30,000.

Things will be a little different on Sunday morning at Hampshire Hills. The state GOP is planning a fundraising brunch at 11 a.m. Sunday morning at the smaller, indoor tennis facility. The timing is not the best, even chairman Fergus Cullen acknowledges, since the candidates will either be out talking to voters or making final pitches on the Sunday morning talk shows. Only Ron Paul and Duncan Hunter have accepted invitations, although Cullen is hoping for some last-minute additions as the others firm up their schedules.

John DiStaso is senior political reporter of the New Hampshire Union Leader and Sunday News.

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