John DiStaso, the New Hampshire Union Leader's senior political writer, began writing "Granite Status" in 1982. His influential reports on behind-the-scenes politics in the first-primary state are must reading every Thursday for insiders from Concord to Washington, D.C. Watch for "Granite Status" updates on UnionLeader.com whenever New Hampshire political news breaks.

WEDNESDAY UPDATE #2:Jennifer Horn, the GOP's 2008 nominee in the 2nd Congressional District, said this morning's Granite Status report on Charlie Bass' interest in running for his old seat “does not change my course at all and I will make an announcement when I originally planned to make an announcement, which is the near future.”

He said she continues to explore a 2010 candidacy but has not yet decided whether to run. She has not yet filed a statement of candidacy or exploratory committee.

WEDNESDAY UPDATE: Republican Charlie Bass is taking a big step toward a run for his former seat representing the state’s 2nd District in the U.S. House.

The Granite Status was first to report this morning that Bass had confirmed that tomorrow he will file a statement of candidacy and a campaign finance committee for 2010 with the Federal Election Commission.

He said he will tap “two or three old friends and supporters from each county” in the 2nd District as advisers.

Bass told us that he has received thousands of dollars in unsolicited contributions in recent weeks and must either return the money or deposit it in a campaign account by the beginning of the fourth quarter tomorrow.

He has been mulling bid to return to his old seat for several months and said he has received “a lot of encouragement.”

Bass told us that despite the filings, “I am not a candidate for Congress, but I have decided to move to the next level.

“I will begin raising money and have a real advisory committee to help me” gauge his chances in a race.

He said he expects to decide whether to officially become a candidate early next year.

Still, Bass’ announcement is a clear sign that he intends to run.

According to a source close to the former congressman, Bass will name a 20-member exploratory committee.

Most are familiar names. The list includes Bing Judd of Pittsburg, Jack Tulley of Nashua, Vahrij Manoukian of Hollis, Jim Hardy of Pelham, Scott Hillard of Northfield, Nancy Dwight of Lyme, Victoria Zachos of Concord, Eric Stohl of Colebrook, Tom Brady of Jefferson and Richard “Stretch” Kennedy of Hopkinton.

Also on his list are Brien Ward of Littleton, Tom Rath of Concord, Steve Griffin of Berlin, Jane Lane of Keene, Dan St. Hillaire of Concord, Scott Mason of North Stratford, Chuck Morse of Salem, Arto Leino of Keene and Sam and Ellen DeYoung of Swanzey.

Bass said the nation needs elected officials committed to pragmatic solutions rather than partisan politics.

A news release announcing the formation of a Bass Victory Committee for 2010 is expected to be issued by consultant Scott Tranchemontagne later today.

Bass served six terms before being defeated by Democrat Paul Hodes in 2006.

Read more about Bass and New Hampshire politics in tomorrow’s “Granite Status” column.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Vice President Joe Biden plans to appear at a fund-raiser next month for U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes, the lone Democratic candidate for the open U.S. Senate seat next year.

A Biden spokesman told the Granite Status this afternoon that the vice president is scheduled to attend the event for Hodes at a private residence in New York City on Oct. 5.

Politico.com reports that Biden has already appeared at events for Sens. Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas and Barbara Boxer of California and next month will be at fund-raisers for Sen. Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania and Senate candidate Robin Carnahan in Missouri.

THURSDAY UPDATE 3: The Granite Status has learned that former President Bill Clinton will return to New Hampshire Dec. 2 to headline the state Democratic Party’s Jefferson-Jackson Dinner.

The annual fund-raiser will be held at the Center of New Hampshire Radisson Hotel in Manchester.

Clinton, who has a close connection to New Hampshire Democrats dating back two decades, will make his first appearance in the state since Nov. 3 of last year, the day before the 2008 general election, when he spoke at a rally for the party’s candidates.

“This is exciting news that President Clinton is going to be with us as we kick off our effort for 2010,” said party executive director Michael Brunelle. “We think this will energize Democrats across the state and we expect a record turnout for the dinner.”

Brunelle said Clinton has headlined many party events in the past, including several 100 Club fund-raisers. Last year, Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., was the featured speaker at the Jefferson-Jackson event. Past dinners have been headlined by Sen. Jim Webb, D-Va., former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, Virginia Sen. and former Gov. Mark Warner and Howard Dean, the former Vermont governor who ran for President in 2004 and last year headed the Democratic National Committee.

Brunelle said Clinton’s appearance will provide the Democratic Party with the momentum necessary to “maintain our majority status in the state.”

Ticket pricing will begin at $100 and rises for “various levels of sponsorship,” Brunelle said.

Party members will be informed of Clinton’s appearance by e-mail later tonight and a formal announcement will be made tomorrow.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE 2: Washington political analyst Charlie Cook rates New Hampshire's 2010 U.S. Senate race as a "toss-up."

Cook's lengthy "baseline analysis" of the budding race for Sen. Judd Gregg's seat, published today in the Cook Political Report, concludes that despite big Democratic victories in 2006 and 2008, "a shifting political landscape that will be problematic for Democrats next year and the emergence of viable GOP candidates has turned a race that just three months ago appeared to be leaning in Democrats’ favor into what could well become one of the most competitive races of the cycle. It is in the Toss Up column."

Cook says that until Ovide Lamontagne, Sean Mahoney or Bill Binnie actually announce candidacies, "it is a contest between Hodes and Ayotte, and polling indicates that it will be a very competitive race."

The analysis was apparently written before our report below that another Republican businessman, Jim Bender, is also seriously considering running.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: With a key reporting deadline six days away, top federal candidates continue to push for campaign dollars.

U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes’ latest appeal for funds for his U.S. Senate run features the Democrat who unseated a Republican incumbent a year ago.

U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen says in a new Hodes for Senate e-mail, blasted to supporters this afternoon, that “2010 is shaping up to be even worse” than 2008, when she said “third party interest groups spent millions against me.”

Shaheen, who defeated Republican Sen. John E. Sununu in November 2008, writes that the “forces working against change” are raising money to air “all the attack ads they can muster” against Hodes, while “national Republican leaders are already funneling money into our state.”

She says Hodes “has set a goal of 100 grassroots donors before midnight September 30,” the end of the third quarter, adding, “This is the next big test of this campaign.”

Shaheen asks for the same grassroots effort that “pushed me to victory” a year ago.Hodes is the only Democrat running to succeed Republican Sen. Judd Gregg, who has announced he will not seek reelection.

ENTER JIM BENDER. Still another New Hampshire businessman is looking closely at becoming a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate, the Status has learned.

Jim Bender of Hollis, a private equity investor who formerly headed Nashua-based Logicraft, Inc., confirmed yesterday that he will file an exploratory committee to formally begin weighing a run for outgoing Sen. Judd Gregg's seat.

Bender, 56, becomes the fifth potential GOP candidate. Coming on the heels of the New Hampshire Sunday News exclusive report on the potential candidacy of businessman William Binnie of Rye, Bender's entrance into the mix could be another early indication of GOP uncertainty about front-runner Kelly Ayotte's budding candidacy.

Time will tell, however, who among Ovide Lamontagne, Sean Mahoney, Binnie and Bender actually become candidates and stay in.

Bender, however, is very serious.

"I'm strongly considering a candidacy because we need to get the federal deficit under control and we need congressional term limits," he said.

After a career in the private sector, "The reason I'm considering running for the Senate is that I'm very concerned about how big the government has grown. We are seeing a $1.6 trillion and $1.7 trillion deficit, which is simply not sustainable.

"What I'm seeing so far is (potential candidates) saying, 'I'm the guy who can beat the other guy,' and I don't see that as a compelling reason to go to Washington."

Bender said he grew up in Concord, Mass., and has been a Hollis resident for 23 years. He's a graduate of the Harvard School of Business Administration and the Lowell Technological Institute.

In the early 1990s, he was president and CEO of Logicraft, a network service provider, before selling the firm and then heading Aware, Inc., in Billerica, Mass.

In recent years, he said, he has been investing in start-up businesses.

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IT'S FUNDRAISING SEASON. A tough economy hasn't stopped the already-organized candidates for federal office from kicking their fund-raising solicitations into high gear.

A key deadline looms only six days away, the Sept. 30 close of the third quarter. Democrat Paul Hodes and Republican Kelly Ayotte are pressing hard to make a strong showing in financial reports that will be made public in mid-October.

Ayotte is the Republican under the most pressure to produce. Her event at the National Republican Senatorial Committee offices on Tuesday was one of three fund-raisers in the nation's capital.

About 40 to 50 people attended the NRSC event, including NRSC chair Sen. John Cornyn, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Tennessee Sen. Lamar Alexander and about a dozen Granite Staters who now live and work in Washington, according to someone who attended.

New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg's attendance was no surprise since he was the catalyst in bringing Ayotte to meet the Washington VIPs in the first place.

Two other receptions in Washington drew smaller groups at a high-end restaurant and the office of a former Gregg staffer-turned-lobbyist.

So, how much is Ayotte realistically expected to haul in when the quarter ends next Wednesday? Those close to her opponents -- both Democratic and GOP -- claim "millions," in an obvious attempt to set the bar unrealistically high.

We'd say a more reasonable figure is in the $250,000 to $300,000 range.

Ayotte did not establish a campaign finance committee and begin raising money until late July. She's been a candidate (for fund-raising purposes; she has not officially declared) for about 60 days.

So, $250,000 to $300,000 range is a realistic showing for a first-time candidate in a poor economy, yet with an appeal to an energized GOP with the big time help of the NRSC and incumbent GOP senators.

Ayotte's potential Republican primary rivals have not yet reported raising any money.

Lamontagne, who, like Ayotte, has been exploring a run since July, has not yet filed a campaign committee. Mahoney announced his interest in running only last week, has not yet filed a committee and so is not expected to report.

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PAUL STEPS IT UP. As the Washington Republicans were feting Ayotte at her $500-a-person and $1,000-a-PAC NRSC event, Hodes, who had $859,000 on hand as of June 30, was having his own bash at the office of D.C. lobbying firm Cornerstone Government Affairs.

Prices for this one were $2,500 or $1,000 for PACs and $1,000 or $500 for individuals.

Hodes has another, similarly priced fund-raiser scheduled for Sept. 30 at the Phoenix Park Hotel, featuring Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill.

Hodes has also blasted out an e-mail to supporters asking them to "rush $5 or more to my campaign and get your new 'Hodes for Senate' bumper-sticker."

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BINNIE CLOSING IN. Binnie is keeping his cards close publicly on just how far along he is in the Senate exploration phase.

But Republicans who have spoken to him say he's very serious. They expect him to run.

A few Republicans with ties to Ayotte, Lamontagne and Mahoney are skeptical of Binnie's GOP credentials.

We reported in the New Hampshire Sunday News that he has contributed to Democrats, as well as Republicans, in the past.

This week, someone pointed out to us a 2003 story in the Chicago Tribune on New Hampshire independents.

Binnie is the lead to the piece, saying he didn't like the Republican or the Democratic party and backed Democrat Bill Bradley in the 2000 presidential primary.

All we can say is: Hey, Republicans, Ronald Reagan was a Democrat before he was a Republican.

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FIGHTING BACK AGAINST FOX. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is trying to parlay what she calls "attacks" against her by Fox News and conservative groups into campaign dollars.

"Help me fight the Fox News attack!" heads her most recent fund-raising e-mail to backers, sent out on Tuesday.

"Lately, I have come under the fiercest attacks I have ever experienced," Shea-Porter writes. "I have Fox News, the National Republican Congressional Committee, the NH GOP, the Tea Party protesters, the Birthers, the Deathers, Glenn Beck's 9/12ers, the Tenthers and the Susan B. Anthony anti-choice group attacking me to name just a few.

"They have shouted at town halls and on radio interviews, and are writing ugly untrue letters." She asks for "your financial help to fight back."

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IN THE GOP. The state Republican Party held a joint fund-raiser with the Massachusetts GOP on Tuesday night in Boston with state chair former Gov. John H. Sununu as the featured speaker.

We understand Sununu is now trying to line up U.S. House Minority Leader John Boehner for another event here in New Hampshire.

Sununu got into the Manchester mayoral election on Tuesday with an e-mail fund-raiser for Ted Gatsas.

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DEMOCRATS GEARING UP. While the state Democratic Party continues to work on details for its annual fall Jefferson-Jackson fund-raiser, it is gearing up for a coordinated grassroots ground game already.

The party this weekend will hold the first of more than two dozen training sessions statewide, where local activists and elected officials will recruit and train interested newcomers and begin planning for next year.

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DOUBLING UP. Still more than a year from the 2010 election the state Democratic Party has doubled up on staff dealing with the media.

Communications director Victoria Bonney has been joined by press secretary Derek Richer, who grew up in Manchester, attended high school in Amherst and most recently worked at the Washington consulting firm of Penn Schoen.

Richer will focus on state elections and issues, while Bonney will concentrate on the upcoming federal races, especially the U.S. Senate race, and that means she'll have even more time to research and write "nice" things about Ayotte.

Bonney noted that the Senate race was recently rated by The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza as the most likely to change parties in 2010.

FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE: This morning, Bonney abruptly left the state Democratic Party to become press secretary of Steven Pagiluca’s campaign for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts. Bonney said she was offered the position yesterday and accepted it late Thursday night.

“Although it was an extremely difficult decision for me to leave New Hampshire, I know opportunities like this don’t come along every day,” Bonney said in an e-mail to this column.She called Pagiluca “a phenomenal candidate,” and said, “The opportunity to have a hand in electing him is one I could not turn down.”

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RIPPING HIS OWN. Within a week of announcing that he is seriously considering running for the Senate, Republican National Committeeman Mahoney authored and e-mailed his "Blueprint for a Republican Resurgence."

The two-printed-page manifesto on the future of the GOP includes a no-holds-barred critique of the GOP of the recent past, including the years of the Bush administration and the GOP majority in the House and Senate.

Mahoney writes that "after nearly a decade of misguided leadership from Republicans in Washington, many Americans believe (the Republican Party) means tax cuts for the rich, expanding government programs, even greater government spending and pointing the finger across the aisle.

"We have gone from the smaller government, personal responsibility party of the Reagan Revolution to the arrogant, out-of-touch, free spending party of the past decade," Mahoney wrote.

He calls on New Hampshire Republicans to "stop playing the D.C. game and start recommitting ourselves to the people of New Hampshire. We need to stand firm against the 'go along to get along' mentality of too many Washington Republicans.

Mahoney calls for GOP candidates and office-holders to be "open, honest and accountable" and for the development of "a policy agenda of our own."

He says the party needs to "reclaim the mantle of the 'Party of Main Street'' by focusing on small businesses, and, we have to reestablish our fiscal responsibility credentials."

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SKEPTICAL PRO-LIFERS. Lamontagne has taken heat from a few pro-life activists for his role as attorney for Catholic Medical Center as it looks to affiliate with the Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center.

A story on Patrick Hynes' NowHampshire.com quotes former New Hampshire Right to Life chairs Barbara Hagan and Ed Holdgate criticizing Lamontagne for participating in the writing of the documents that will allow, as Hagan put it, "Dartmouth pro-abortion doctors to infiltrate CMC and eventually take it over."

Current Right to Life President Kurt Wuelper told the Web site that pro-lifers should speak out against the CMC-Dartmouth deal and, "Even if Mr. Lamontagne runs against some other partly wishy-washy 'pro-life' person like Ms. Ayotte, he'll not be getting my vote because of his work on this travesty."

Lamontagne adviser Jim Merrill responds that Lamontagne's "commitment to the sanctity of life is well-known by leaders throughout New Hampshire. Any allegation that the proposed affiliation between Catholic Medical Center and Dartmouth Hitchcock will diminish CMC's commitment to life is categorically false."

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A SERIOUS TOPIC. Shea-Porter has been challenging the safety precautions taken by overseas defense contractors for more than a year.

Earlier this year, the New Hampshire Union Leader reported that Shea-Porter, a member of the House Armed Services Committee, had taken up the cause of the families of soldiers who, after surviving combat, had died as a result of faulty wiring at their living quarters.

This week, Shea-Porter said that she and Rep. Jan Schakowsky, D-Ill., renewed their call for a Pentagon probe after the death of Adam Hermanson, an Air Force veteran who was working for a defense contractor when he died in Iraq by electrocution while taking a shower.

Shea-Porter wrote that Hermanson, like 18 other military service members or contractors, had been electrocuted and that a prior probe had blamed faulty wiring in many cases.

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JOHN VS. JOHN E.? Last week's Rasmussen Reports' early pre-2010 poll of New Hampshire showed Gov. John Lynch in a strong position against two potential, yet little-known, GOP rivals.

Among 500 likely voters, Lynch topped Dover businessman Jack Kimball, 52 to 31 percent and former state Sen. Chuck Morse, 52 to 29 percent.

But in a hypothetical match-up with former Sen. John E. Sununu, Lynch prevails by only five percentage points (48 to 43 percent), nearly within the poll's margin of error.

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BRADY'S NEW POST. New Hampshire native and former congressional candidate Mark Brady is now working for Gov. Bobby Jindal's administration in Louisiana.

Brady this week was named chief of staff to the state's Commissioner of Administration. He is a former assistant commerce secretary in the Bush administration.

In 2004, Brady lost to former Rep. Charlie Bass in a 2nd District U.S. House primary.

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FRANK'S CAPTAINS. Manchester mayor and GOP 1st District U.S. House hopeful Frank Guinta will release a list of his campaign's county captains shortly.

They include former state Sen. George Lovejoy of Barrington, Joe and Madeline Moffett of Gonic, Maureen Mooney of Merrimack, Doug Lambert of Gilford, Luke Freudenberg of Wolfeboro, Pam Smith of Manchester, Joan Bastek of Portsmouth, Andrew Manuse of Derry, Rogers Johnson of Stratham, Dino Scala of Wakefield, Laurie Boyce of Alton, Dick Hinch of Merrimack, Diane Bitter of Rye, Ken Hawkins and Jane Aitken of Bedford and Tim Low of Hooksett.

John DiStaso is senior political reporter of the New Hampshire Union Leader.

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