Monarchs playoffs start tonight

THERE SHOULD BE no way the Monarchs are going to lose this best-of-seven first round AHL playoff series to the Worcester Sharks.

Here's why.

Offense

With a great deal more depth than the Sharks have ever faced in a Monarchs lineup this season, give the advantage to Manchester. The Monarchs will skate four healthy lines of forwards and first-year coach Mark Morris will have the luxury of picking and choosing between four other forwards to keep the Sharks guessing.

"There's no question we're going to win this series," said Monarchs forward Jeff Giuliano, of Nashua. He has been part of four previous Monarchs losing efforts when it comes to advancing past the first round. "There's just a feeling in the locker room. We have four solid lines now. With that there's an attitude of confidence."

No surprises when it comes to stopping the Sharks. Worcester's veteran left wing Mathieu Darche and right wing Graham Mink have a combined 143 points, far more than Manchester's top two scorers.

►Inside Source: Time to drop the playoff puck

But, Darche has scored only one goal in his last six games -- he's more a playmaker. Mink has been much more effective in goal production in the past two months not going more than two games without a goal since Feb. 21. Darche's point production in his last 10 games is equal to that of Monarchs leading scorer Matt Moulson -- both with 12 points.

Monarchs second-leading scorer, Noah Clarke, brings a personal four-game points streak into the playoffs with 11 points in his last 10 Monarchs games (interrupted by a stint of nine games in Los Angeles). Mink has 13 points in his last 10.

Third-leading Sharks scorer Mike Iggulden has points in seven of his last eight games (6 goals, 4 assists, 10 rebounds) and his season-long production is similar to that of Moulson or Clarke. Stacked up with Monarchs third-leading scorer Marty Murray, Iggulden is trumped. Murray has an eight-game personal points streak with 3-11-14 during that time.

Patrick O'Sullivan has played three games since his return from Los Angeles and in those games he has 1-4-5. O'Sullivan, rookie of the year last season in the AHL, was on an 80-point pace in this league before a promotion that saw him skate 41 games with the Kings.

Defense

The Monarchs defense is potentially more lethal in the offensive end. The Sharks have a defense that produced 25 goals on the season. Manchester's blueliners have 37 goals.

In the last three games leading into the playoffs, Manchester's defense allowed only two goals. Four of the Monarchs' last five game-winning goals were scored by defensemen.

Three Monarchs defensemen are among the team's top 10 scorers, while only Worcester's Garrett Stafford, a UNH product, is a top 10 scorer. Manchester's Oleg Tverdovsky, the priciest player in the series at $2.5 million, is putting up points at a point-a-game clip. He brings a personal four-game points streak into the playoffs. Rookie Monarchs all-star Peter Harrold touts a five-game points streak.

For its three defensive pairings the Monarchs will choose among nine players. Again Morris will have the capability of presenting a very offensive-minded group of defensemen or a defensive-oriented corps.

Goaltending

The league's best goaltender, Jason LaBarbera, who is on a five-game win streak with a 2.21 goals against average, will not return tonight for the Monarchs playoff home opener at 7:05 p.m.

This is a big series question mark. LaBarbera sustained a leg injury on April 7 and has not played in five games (11 days off). When LaBarbera is in form, he is hard to beat. How LaBarbera goes might be how the Monarchs go, although backup Barry Brust is on a season-best three-game win streak.

Only twice in the last 15 games has a Monarchs opponent scored four goals or more in a game and on both of those occasions LaBarbera was not the starter.

"I told Brusty the guys believe in him," said the 27-year-old LaBarbera. "He's a good goalie and there's no reason we can't win ... We can only beat ourselves, taking a lot of penalties."

LaBarbera will probably be ready to go by the weekend or early next week.

The Monarchs can boast the credentials of this sure-fire NHLer, but at times this season the Sharks took a bite out of him. Try 25 Sharks goals in seven games, a 3.73 goals against average. LaBarbera went 4-3 against Worcester, but they gave him the most trouble of any team in the league.

At their end the Sharks are not without rising star goaltending power in 21-year-old rookie Thomas Greiss, who was San Jose's third-round pick, 94th overall, in 2004.

Having played for Cologne in Germany's Bundesliga the last two seasons, Greiss is not exactly a fresh-faced intimidated rookie. Look for him to go the distance in this series. Overall Griess has a 2.61 goals against average. He has had two games off (four days). He has not lost a game by more than two goals since March 7. His record since that time is 12-3. Against the Monarchs he has a 2.82 goals against average and a 3-2 record.

How the other goalies have fared in this series? Brust went 2-1 against Worcester and backed the only shutout victory on either side; Demitri Patzold was 1-3 against Manchester and Nolan Schaeffer (no longer with the Sharks) was 0-1.

Experience

Ten Monarchs played in a combined 153 man-games with the Kings this season while two Worcester players appeared in a total of five games. That is largely a function of the San Jose Sharks having a solidified roster that carried them into the NHL playoffs while the Kings struggled near the bottom of the same division and shuttled prospects to wet their feet. At this level though it represents valuable experience.

"I can speak for the guys who went up this year because I went up last year," said Giuliano. "It builds confidence ... the guys who are here now are here because they want to be here and they want to continue playing."

If Tverdovsky stays healthy, he brings the experience of having been a part of two Stanley Cup champions (Carolina 2006 and New Jersey 2003). Marty Murray helped the Philadelphia Phantoms to the AHL Calder Cup. LaBarbera played virtually all of last season in the NHL.

All of that experience should outlast the lengthy resumes of Worcester defensemen Patrick Traverse and Scott Ferguson and forwards Darche and Mink.

Fast Facts

The team leading at the end of the first period has continued on to win every game in the regular-season series except two. On those occasions the game was tied at the end of the opening period. Worcester won four times after leading at the end of the first and ditto Manchester.

The team scoring the first goal has won seven of the 10 games in the regular-season series.

While the teams split four one-goal games in the regular season, Manchester was 4-2 in games decided by two or more goals.

Against playoff teams in April Worcester is 1-3. Manchester was 3-1.

Conclusion

Not once in the last four meetings has Manchester had a full roster when facing the Sharks. Overall Manchester is unbeaten in regulation in nine straight -- its hottest run ever into the playoffs.

It is well-documented that in their five-year existence the Monarchs have never made it out of the first round of the playoffs. In two weeks that will be history and so will the Worcester Sharks.

Kevin Provencher covers the Manchester Monarchs for the New Hampshire Union Leader and New Hampshire Sunday News.