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Wednesday's polls show McCain gaining
By GARRY RAYNO
New Hampshire Union Leader Staff
Thursday, Dec. 20, 2007
MANCHESTER – Eight years ago, Arizona Sen. John McCain was the front-runner in the Republican presidential primary, leading then Texas Gov. George Bush and pulling away.
Today, McCain is the underdog, but two polls show him gaining ground in the Granite State after a week of endorsements from major media, from former Democratic vice presidential candidate Joe Lieberman, and from a former secretary of state to two Presidents, Henry Kissinger.
One poll showed the Arizona senator in what could be considered a dead heat with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
"We're firing on all cylinders," said Mike Dennehy, McCain's national political director. "Everything is coming together perfectly and right when we needed it."
McCain has been courting independents, the state's largest voting bloc. He notes many New Hampshire voters are still undecided.
In an interview last night on MSNBC's "Hardball with Chris Matthews," McCain predicted he would win in New Hampshire, but said, "Whether I 'win' or not is up to you and others (in the media) ... It's expectations."
He attributed former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's recent surge in Iowa and national polls to Huckabee's entertaining debate performances and his "likability."
"He comes across as a very decent person who has a sense of humor," McCain said. "The thing I regret is, we have not talked about his health care (plan). We have not talked about education, the war, Iran."
The latest Rasmussen Reports' New Hampshire poll shows Romney with 31 percent, McCain at 27 percent and no one else within striking distance.
The poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percent, which puts the candidates in a dead heat.
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani attracts 13 percent, while former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is at 11 percent.
Before the latest endorsements, Romney had 33 percent support and McCain 18. In late-November, Romney led by 19 points and was up by 15 in early November.
According to the latest CNN/WMUR New Hampshire Primary Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, McCain has overtaken Giuliani for second place behind Romney, who has maintained a steady lead with 34 to 32 percent for the last two months.
McCain has 22 percent of the likely Republican voters -- up from 18 percent -- a week ago, while Giuliani has dropped from 19 to 16 percent since last week. Huckabee, who leads polls in Iowa, is fourth with 10 percent and Texas Congressman Ron Paul is fifth with 5 percent.
Romney's New Hampshire campaign spokesman Craig Smith said, "We continue to see that Gov. Romney's support is strong throughout the state. ... He's the one candidate talking about securing our borders, cutting taxes and strengthening families and those issues are very important to New Hampshire voters."
Dennehy said the polls "validates what we are feeling on the ground. With every town hall meeting with John McCain, we have more and more people coming up after and telling (McCain) 'You've got my vote,' which is what occurred in 2000. When the buzz started to occur, that's when things really took off for us."
The UNH Survey Center poll contacted 411 likely Republican voters and 469 likely Democratic voters with a sampling error of plus or minus 5 percent. Voters were contacted between Dec. 13 and 17 for the poll.
Clinton out front in Democratic field
On the Democratic side, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton again leads Sen. Barack Obama, 38 to 26 percent, after being in a dead heat last week. Former vice presidential candidate John Edwards is third with 14 percent and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson fourth at 8 percent.
Riding the bounce from his appearance with Oprah Winfrey last week drawing over 8,000 people, Obama pulled statistically even with Clinton.
Last Saturday, Clinton returned to New Hampshire, went door-to-door in Manchester and held two other events emphasizing her experience particularly on health care issues. Recently, the campaign emphasized the candidate's personal side by showing her with her mother and daughter.
New Hampshire campaign spokesman Kathleen Strand said the campaign has also been very active on the grassroots and policy levels, holding a number of roundtable discussions and canvassing around the state.
In both the Democratic and Republican UNH surveys, many voters said they have yet to finally decide which candidate they will vote for.
Of the likely Democratic voters, 65 percent say they have not definitely decided on a candidate. Of those who have, 54 percent of Clinton's supporters say they have definitely decided to vote for the former First Lady, while 23 percent of Obama's supporters say they definitely will vote for the Illinois Senator.
Among Republicans, 42 percent of Romney's supporters say they definitely will vote for him, while 26 percent of McCain's supporters say they definitely will vote for their candidate. Among likely Republican voters -- 74 percent -- say they have not definitely decided on a candidate.
In both races, independent or undeclared voters could have a significant effect on the outcome of both parties' primary.
In the latest poll, 60 percent said they would likely vote in the Democratic primary, which is up from 54 percent a week ago.
Obama is more popular among Democratic leaning independent voters, but just barely, with a 33 to 31 percent edge over Clinton with 17 percent favoring Edwards.
On the Republican side, undeclared voters favor Romney with 30 percent support, while Giuliani has 25 percent and McCain 23 percent.
In the Rasmussen poll, McCain leads among voters over 65, while Romney does better with younger voters. Romney has the lead among Republicans with McCain holding a slight edge among undeclared voters who expect to vote in the Republican primary. Romney has the edge among conservatives, McCain among moderates.

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YOUR COMMENTS
I'm a moderate Democrat, and while I find McCain exasperating from time to time, I have enormous respect for his experience, his intelligence, and his integrity. I had lost respect for him after his disastrous efforts to woo the Religious Right at the start of the campaign, but after watching the GOP debates, I've forgiven him.
If McCain is the nominee in 08, I'll still vote Democrat, but I'll have a lot more respect for Republicans. How on earth can the GOP be giving such serious consideration to an oily used-car salesman like Romney and a religious fanatic like Huckabee? And then there's Hizzoner--who would out neocon George Bush.
Agree or disagree with him, few can deny that McCain is well-qualified to lead this country, both in experience and temperament. And who knows, even some of us moderate Democrats may be persuaded to jump fence in 08 if he's the nominee.
- Gloria Smith-Williamson, Pittsburgh, PA
I'm excited by McCain's resurgence. I had pretty much written him off a few months ago, and now, having paid a lot of attention to the primaries, I feel a glimmer of hope! It's been pretty depressing seeing the Republicans in such apparent disarray even though I think most of them are decent men. But whenever I see McCain interviewed I find myself admiring his views and his calm yet forceful manner. I can see him as our President and I now feel that I know who should run against Hillary! Some polls think he's the only Republican that can beat her.
So a plea from a California Conservative to put McCain back in the spotlight and to another exciting comeback fueled by the independant folks from the Granite State! By the time the primaries get to us on the west coast we have far less say so than we'd like so please get behind McCain and make this an exciting race!
- Jez Stratton, Oakland,CA
Mitt Romney has also raised far more money, (from contributors), than McCain. Since when did conservatives start buying into the populist logic that hard work and self-made financial success are considered a negative. Mitt has out-worked, out-organized, out-debated every other Republican candidate. He is by far the most articulate and informed on detailed issues. Let's look at the candidates records and what they have actually accomplished. If you want a president with conservative values, a demonstrated ability to lead, who turns impossible situations into successes and who gets things done, Mitt has to be near the top of anyone's list. Despite, the rediculous ungrounded label making and negative bias in the press, and a tendency for his opponents and other talking heads to attack him based on his religion, Mitt will prevail.
- Jake W. Garn, Kaysville, UT
There is one choice, John McCain. John has served his country with duty, honor, courage, and commitment. He has demonstarated this both as a United States Naval Officer and United States Senator. John McCain personifies the meaning of leadership everyday by the example he sets. His family legacy is one of great honor and dedication to this great nation. It is inherent in John's character as is was in his father's and grandfather's. There was a time in this country when great leaders like John led us through our most difficult times. That time has come again, this is the type of leadership we need. We, as a nation, should be thankful, to have leaders like John McCain. God Bless, America and God Bless, John McCain.
- William C. Pisano, Yonkers, NY
John McCain is the man who will be ready to fight the war against Islamic terrorists on day one. He is courageous and never afraid to speak his mind on any and all issues. He has more character than anyone else running for president, and Sen. Lieberman was wise to endorse him. Sen. McCain got my vote in 2000, and he will again in 2008.
- Lisa Thompson, Tampa, FL
How is it that Mrs. Clinton could be up by twelve points when she was in a dead heat with Obama just last week. I have to question the accuracy and the value of such polling. It seems a bit shoddy.
- Robert Brock, Dallas, Texas
John McCain was my choice in 2000 and my choice this year. America need you. Best luck John.
- Walter Slater, Yakima Washington
Mitt Romney has spent millions (much of it out of his own personal fortune) in Iowa and NH while his chief rivals in those states have been operating on relative shoestring budgets. What does this say about his vote-getting capacity in the general election, when he'll face an unprecedented Democrat financial juggernaut?
- william k. olender, manchester, nh
To ALL Undecided Voters:
The reason people in Iowa like Governor Mike Huckabee is tha he is not a Republican owned by the elitist political class. He is not trying to buy the election as the other corporate picks. He is a Populist Republican with a Proven record, who can Articulate conservative principles. He is balanced, deliberate, yet spontaneous and quick on his feet. He offers the best contrast to Hillary and the least connection to George Bush which, with all due respect, will help him in the general elections. The media is trying to paint him with a broad brush as someone who appeals only to evangelicals. I hope the voters of NH are savvy enough to see through the media filters and realize Governor Huckabee has broad appeal and will be able to reach out to alot of different people based on his excellent record of governance. My Parents live in Arkansas and have been highly impressed with him. Go to his website www.MikeHuckabee.com and see for yourself. I hope the current media filters and attack ads will backfire and the people of NH will give Mike a fair hearing. That is all a candidate can ask for.
- Tim Kelley, St. Paul MN
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