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 Events Calendar > All

Primary buzz is building early

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By JOHN DISTASO
Senior Political Reporter

They’re not even candidates, yet. But they’re campaigning.

With the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire Primary slightly less than two years away, they’re already working for the political hearts and minds of a relatively small number of Republican and Democratic activists. These coveted Granite Staters, the potential candidates hope, will help them if they decide later this year, or early next, to run for President in 2008.

And, in the process, they are hoping interested likely voters at least get to know their names and receive a favorable first impression.

The fact that no one has announced for President, yet, is a mere formality.

After the 2006 mid-term elections, says a state Democratic leader, “the dam will break.”

The “dam” is already leaking heavily.

Despite the efforts of some national Democratic leaders to diminish the importance of the first-in-the-nation event, the potential candidates are coming here with increasing frequency. The national media are increasingly following them and asking Granite State activists for early impressions.

“Even I am startled by the early maneuvering,” said Richard Ashooh, a vice president at BAE Systems and a long-time active Republican.

This pre-primary “buzz” will get louder next month when several potential candidates visit the state.

If any doubt remains after that, Arizona Sen. John McCain, the 2000 Republican primary victor and “pre-season” GOP front-runner will erase it on April 7 and 8, when he arrives with a full-blown campaign-style schedule, including a town hall question-and-answer session.

McCain, like the others, will talk about how important it is for his party to do well in the 2006 elections. He, like the others, will raise money for local politicians who are running this year. He, like the others, will hold private meetings with influential activists.

He, like the others, will plant the seed for an ‘08 run.

Building relationships

“The fact that it’s so open — without even a vice president running — means it is inevitable that things are getting started so soon,” said Republican National Committeeman Tom Rath. Every time someone makes a move, someone else feels that they have to make a move.

“Right now, there are phone calls, invitations to events, and you get a tremendous amount of email,” said Rath. “They make a lot of calls and already know the names of a lot of people’s children. A lot of it is trying to build personal relationships.”

McCain and a trio of Democrats — Sen. John Kerry, former Sen. John Edwards and retired Gen. Wesley Clark — have run in the state in the past. For them, the ground has already been broken.

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton is viewed as having a base of potential support in New Hampshire, as well, from her days campaigning here with her husband. Clinton, however, has stayed out of New Hampshire so far.

Having run before “is a clear advantage,” said Michael Dennehy, who directed McCain’s 2000 New Hampshire campaign. “A lot of people did a lot of hard work six and seven years ago to build a campaign from scratch. It makes those people much more passionate about their candidate.”

Dennehy hopes McCain’s existing support base is supplemented by people who backed President George W. Bush in 2000. But Rath said the “Bush people” are up for grabs.

Democrat Judy Reardon said Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry enjoys “a residue of strong good will” from 2004, when he won the primary and the state’s four electoral votes.

“Senator Kerry’s successes in New Hampshire contributed to John Lynch being elected governor,” said Reardon, Kerry’s 2004 regional deputy campaign director.

“That being said, activists are most motivated by wanting to win the White House, so everyone who enters the fray or explores it is going to get serious consideration,” Reardon said.

“There is certainly an advantage in having established relationships and knowing who to call, knowing the ropes and knowing what’s a good event and what’s not,” she said. “On the other hand, Democrats tend to look at people who lost a bit more critically before giving them a second chance.”

‘Price of admission’

State Democratic and Republican officials say they are approached almost daily by potential 2008 candidates looking for guidance or the names of key Granite Staters. They also seek help planning visits.

The help is provided, but with it often comes a request for a contribution to the state parties’ 2006 warchests.

McCain will host a fund-raiser for the state Senate Republicans in April. Next month, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will help Carroll County Republicans raise money, while Kerry will do the same for Hillsborough County Democrats and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson will do the same for the Manchester Democratic Committee.

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., has keynoted several county and local GOP committee fund-raisers in four visits to the state in the past year.

Some, such as Kerry, New York Gov. George Pataki and former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, have also cut checks.

“I’d view that as almost a price of admission rather than a way of getting an advantage,” said Ashooh. “If they don’t help in that way, that would raise eyebrows.”

PAC action

All the potential candidates have political action committees, from Pataki’s “21st Century Freedom PAC,” to Kerry’s “Keeping America’s Promise” and Warner’s “Forward Together.” As of Friday, six of them had filed New Hampshire-specific committees — Kerry, McCain, Warner, Pataki, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack.

The paperwork for a New Hampshire version of Romney’s “Commonwealth PAC” will be filed shortly, says a source familiar with his activities. The treasurer will be Mark Sykas, the husband of GOP activist Sharon Sykas.

Manchester attorney Susan Duprey, a Bush supporter in 2000 who is now treasurer of McCain’s “Straight Talk America” New Hampshire PAC, said she signed on as a way to help local candidates and also show that “I’m very interested in a possible McCain candidacy. I hope he gets into the race.”

Romney began making inroads by campaigning for President Bush in 2004. Since then, he has been in the state four times, with visits scheduled next month in Carroll County and Nashua for a popular St. Patrick’s Day event.

He has also keynoted fundraising receptions for the Rockingham County and Derry Republican committees. As early as last September, Romney hosted a well-attended fund-raiser for the Republican State Committee at his lakefront second home, in Wolfeboro.

Romney chairs the Republican Governor’s Association, which has a PAC ready to send money into states across the country where Republican candidates need it.It’s known as “party-building,” and all the potential candidates are doing it. They also hold small private meetings with activists while in New Hampshire. Romney began doing that last summer in Wolfeboro and has also hosted Granite State Republicans for luncheons and dinners in Boston.

Ashooh said that at these meetings, the potential candidates ask as many questions as the guests.

“They want to know what people care about, what keeps them up at night,” Ashooh said.

“For a first-time candidate, these sessions are important,” said McCain supporter Dennehy. “New Hampshire is a different animal. The candidates run into very sophisticated voters that they may not be used to even in their own states.”

Pataki has taken the significant step of hiring Manchester-based Meridian Communications to consult with his New York-based experts on media relations and organizing strategy.

Meridian president Jack Heath said he met Pataki “through mutual friends.”

Heath and partners Michael Biundo and Alicia Preston worked on Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta’s successful campaign last year. Pataki contributed to Guinta’s his campaign, went door-to-door campaigning with Guinta and cut a television advertisement promoting him.

“There is no quid pro quo” — no promise of a Guinta endorsement should Pataki run, Heath said. “The mayor probably won’t be involved (in Presidential campaign activities) for the time being.”

Heath said it is far too early for endorsements, but, he said, “Folks do approach us who are very open and want to meet with (Pataki) and talk about the issues that he would run on.”

Patrick Griffin of the Manchester public relations/advertising firm Griffin Bodi and Krause said he “hasn’t done anything formally for anyone,” but has “helped Mitt Romney out as a friend. I’ve done a little work with him and helped him in a general way, but there is no contract.”

“Preventative medicine is better than remedial,” said state Democratic vice chair Raymond Buckley. “Any friends and connections that any of these potential candidates have now have can have a significant impact on their ability to get their message out in 2007 and 2008.”

Buckley said Lynch, with his high approval ratings and his expected reelection victory in 2006, will eventually be the prime Democratic endorsement prize.

For Republicans and Democrats, he said, members of Congress, state senators, executive councilors and other party leaders will also be sought, although history shows that such endorsements do not guarantee a primary victory.

“But at this point,” said Buckley, “I’d say less than a handful of people are seriously committed to anyone.”

Executive Councilor Peter Spaulding, R-Hopkinton, is chairing McCain’s state PAC, while Richardson, the Democratic New Mexico governor, has impressed Concord lobbyist Dick Bouley, a veteran activist.

Bouley cited Richardson’s resume as a congressman, energy secretary and ambassador have given him contacts throughout New Hampshire.

Bouley said that while he has not committed to any potential Presidential candidate, “If I had to make a decision right now, I would choose him. As I get older, I like to go with people who I think would be winners.”