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The Democrats: As usual, the undecideds are the key

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By TOM FAHEY
State House Bureau Chief

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton defied the pundits and pollsters' predictions yesterday, winning the New Hampshire presidential primary and claiming her own rights to the title of "Comeback Kid."

Her husband, former President Bill Clinton, pasted the comeback label on himself in 1992 when he finished second in the New Hampshire primary after it was predicted he would lose badly.

Last night it was his wife's turn. In her victory speech, she credited the win to help New Hampshire voters gave her after a painful loss in the Iowa caucus.

"Over the last week I listened to you and in the process, I found my own voice," she told a cheering crowd at Southern New Hampshire University. "I felt like we all spoke from our hearts and I'm so gratified that you responded. Now together let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me ... Tomorrow we're gonna get up, roll our sleeves and keep going."

With 96 percent of the vote counted, Clinton had 40 percent, Barack Obama 37, John Edwards 17, Bill Richardson 5 and Dennis Kucinich 1.

Political polls taken over the past week showed Clinton steadily losing ground to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama after he won the Iowa caucus by more than an 8 percent margin. Heavy turnout among young voters and independents here, experts said, would translate into an Obama win.

Jan8 Clinton speaks 200px

Hillary Rodham Clinton speaks at her victory rally in Manchester last night.

Ominous polling results had Clinton's camp worried. Her staff tried to dampen expectations yesterday, telling reporters they'd be happy to finish within 10 percent of Obama.

Instead, Clinton took an early lead last night and never let go of it. Media outlets began declaring her the likely winner just after 10:30 p.m.

She told her celebrating supporters her administration would take care of the middle class and those at the bottom of the economic heap.

"Too many have been invisible for too long. Well, you are not invisible to me," Clinton said.

She ticked off health care companies, mortgage, student loan companies as beneficiaries of the Bush Administration.

"We've had seven years of a president who stood up for them. It's time we had a president who stood up for all of you," she said.

Obama conceded at 10:45 p.m. He entered the gym at Nashua High School South, hugged and shook supporters' hands, and put the best face on his defeat, the way many spent their day expecting Clinton to do.

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"A few weeks ago no one could have imagined what we have accomplished here. We always knew our climb would be steep," Obama said. In a brief speech, he emphasized his message of hope and led the crowd in a chant of "Yes, we can."

Urging supporters to build a "new American majority" he said, "There is no problem that we cannot solve, there is no destiny that we cannot fulfill. "

With 91 percent of voting precincts reporting at press time, Clinton had 102,379, or 39 percent of the vote, to Obama's 95,156, or 36 percent.

Throughout the night, Clinton maintained the same small lead in percentage terms over Obama, and well ahead of former North Carolina Sen John Edwards at 17 percent and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson at 5 percent.

Jan8 Obama defeated 200px (AP)

Barack Obama acknowledges the cheers of supporters and receives a hug from his wife, Michelle, upon arrival at South Nashua High School in Nashua tonight. (AP)

Among cities and towns that reported, Obama won towns important to him, like Keene, Portsmouth and Dover, but Clinton took the state's largest city of Manchester by more than 3,100 votes and Nashua by nearly 1,800.

The scare Clinton got in Iowa and polling results here also prompted her to make staff changes yesterday, with longtime Clinton confidante Maggie Williams poised to come aboard to help sharpen the former first lady's message, according to an Associated Press report.

Obama, who surprised the nation with his 8 percent margin of victory in Iowa, hoped yesterday for a repeat performance that could well have propelled him to the nomination. Now he'll have to continue battling Clinton, who is better experienced and equally well funded.

Obama supporters were convinced they'd be celebrating last night.

"I'm somewhat in shock," said Wes Takayama of Nashua. Like many supporters, he stood quietly, shaking his head and watching the results roll in.

"I'm wondering where the polls got their numbers from," he said. "It wasn't one poll, either. What happened?:

David Callahan, 19, of Nashua, said he came expecting a blowout. He and his friends stood in the back of the gymnasium, arms folded to their chests.

"I'm surprised," Callahan said. "I can't explain it."

Clinton supporters said they were gratified.

"It's nice the New Hampshire voters have come out with a vengeance. She really deserves it," said A.J. Malloy of Dunbarton, a Clinton volunteer. "It's great. It's nice to see some real hard work pay off."

"It's a surprise the way the press was reporting such a lead for Obama," said Gail Morris of Bedford. "I'm thrilled. We were just hoping she could come close."

jan8 Edwards 370px

John Edwards takes the stage last night to congratulate Clinton and Obama.

If Clinton could not win the primary, she needed at least to stay close to Obama. In Iowa, she finished third, a few tenths of a percent behind Edwards. It is Edwards now with the biggest question mark over his head as he heads into an intense month of campaigning with third-place showings in two vitally important elections.

Edwards conceded the election at 10:15 last night, saying he's not done yet.

"Two races down, 48 states left to go," he said, adding, "I am in this race to the convention and I intend to be the nominee of my party."

His campaign adviser, Joe Trippi, said a race with no clear leader will go all the way to the convention. Edwards was outspent 6-to-1 in Iowa and 4-to-1 in New Hampshire, Trippi noted, but his message will get through even better in the reduced field.

"We knew what was going to happen here," Trippi said. "South Carolina will be a three-person race, and John has done very well against just the two of them. If you have the message, it can beat these people."

Candidates spent the day trying to lock up the last group of voters who hadn't yet made up their minds. Roughly 20 percent of those expecting to vote in the Democratic Primary still were undecided as recently as Sunday, according to the latest tracking poll by the UNH Survey Center.

Clinton and Obama delivered coffee to supporters at polls and campaign offices at the break of dawn and Edwards put the wraps on a 36-hour marathon of final campaign stops.

The theme of change came to be the central point in the Democratic campaign here, overshadowing other topics like the economy, health care and the war in Iraq. Each candidate vied to be seen as the one best able to deliver a change in the status quo in Washington.

Clinton, 60, a former first lady, argued that her years of experience working on issues like children's health insurance and women's rights prepare her best for the job.

"Change is not something you hope for. It's something you work for," she said.

Obama, 46, painted himself as the outsider untainted by decades in Washington, bringing hope to the political process. He told a rally in Iowa after his victory, "you can do what the cynics said could not be done."

Edwards, 54, former senator from North Carolina, said he is best able to break the stranglehold lobbyists and corporations have on the federal government, pointing out he has not taken money from special interest groups in any of his campaigns.

Richardson, who often cited his experience as a Secretary of Energy, a United Nations ambassador and a governor, conceded about 9 p.m., and promised to continue his campaign into the Feb. 5 Super Tuesday primaries.

Clinton had attracted the support of the Democratic establishment. Among those in her camp were former state party chair Kathy Sullivan; Dr. Susan Lynch, wife of Gov. John Lynch; attorney William Shaheen, husband of former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen; Senate President Sylvia Larsen and Speaker of the House Terie Norelli.

Obama drew the support of freshman congressmen Paul Hodes and Carol Shea Porter, and former Health and Human Services Commissioner Ned Helms.

Trailing far behind were Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel. Joe Biden and Christopher Dodd withdrew from the race after weak showings in Iowa.

Union Leader Staff Writers Scott Brooks, Benjamin Kepple and Chris Dornan contributed to this report.

YOUR COMMENTS


I am always amazed as to how the American people have one, a very short memory, two, a very short attention span ( in believing everything that someone tells them) and three allow the media to let the Clintons always change the goal post if it does not go in their favor, how is it that Obama has one more states, and this idea that he won't get votes in the General is crazy, democrats will votes for him with his crossover appeal, he has accumulated more delegates even in Texan, and the media in wanting Clinton to win and overcome his lead so badly stated that the momentum was over, she so called won by less than 3% of the vote and now with the caucuses that is questionable.

Most of the votes she received at the last moment was due to the kitchen sink strategy, but those who made up their minds to vote for her, were not going to vote for Obama and looked for a reason, this Resko crap that the press is allowing her to continue to bring up, he is not on trial Resko is, you have dug and dug and the only thing that you can come up with is property that he purchased, remember Obama gave his money to charity, why can't we see the presidential papers or her tax returns to see what she did with Resko donations that she received, or his middle name or his wife's papers from college, let's not forget the scandal in about her senatorial campaign with Peter Paul giving her campaign 1.2 million dollars, which was never used for the campaign, never donated to charity, but there is a court case that is pending that shows Billary and Chelsea will have to testify on charges.

WHY IS THE PRESS NOT BRINGING THIS UP.? And her 35 years of experience is a joke and makes me want to throw up when I hear it, do the comparison of her 8 years in office passing legislation or getting it passed and Obama's 8 years in the state senate and 3 years in the senate and the important legislation that he has passed and how he has always been able to cross over party lines, but not Hillary the fighter who only wants to get back in to show the (Right winged conspirators) republicans and rub it in their face.

The bottom line is if Florida and Michigan are allowed as is to be counted it is not fair, he was not on the ballot, and so what if he chose not to by following the rules, and they Super delegates can wait for the Convention and choose Hillary, I will never vote for her, it will be McCain or stay at home, and it would be a sad day, because all the youth that Obama brought into the campaign not Clinton, she only wanted the youth after she saw what Obama was doing, just like she is insulting the states that she did not win, or have very small delegates stating that in the general they won't count. Hopefully you guys will read and learn.
- Beverly Sims, Chicago, Illinois

This is a woman who hasn't managed so much as a corner vegetable stand, or for that matter her own marriage; but, of course you could count Whitewater, and her tenure as "Madam" for Bill's White House Brothel. With her increasingly frequent crying jags, one has to wonder if excessive use of Botox has affected her mental stability. It's no wonder that her campaign staff is shielding her from reporter and audience unscripted questions. The prospect of Madam Hillary as President; in a word: TERRIFYING. Greg Neubeck
- Greg Neubeck, Lynn Haven. FL

It was sheer luck she won in NH, nothing more. If it was a shocking win or stunning upset that is the media''s fault, and the naive people who find voting for a loser more acceptable than voting for change, sheer stupidity.
- Robert Cross, Bow, NH

I am proud to be an American! A Republican who voted for Hillary! An opportunity for double strength when we need it most. Bill Clinton was a great President with the power of Hillary and now....we will have Hillary Clinton as President with the power of Bill. America at its best! Susan.......you still have time to study the issues and do some personal homework on these politicians.
- Diane, Goffstown

Susan,
The pollsters themselves admitted to being wrong. This is not another Florida. She has won our hearts. She is intelligent, experienced, articulate and has a message with substance.
- JT, Manchester

Thank you New Hampshire!!

Thank you for turning the game upside down again and making this one of the most fascinating Presidential races in recent US history.

And thank you for voting for substance over style.
- Louise, Michigan

Mr and Mrs Clinton have always seemed liked nice people to me but honestly I just dont see anything I know as true leadership in either of them. If I were ordered to march full metal jacket into the sea and to my death by any commander, I would be the first in line and respectfully request a bucket of water to get a leg up on the drowning process.
With a male of female 'President Clinton' I'd truthfully have to say I would hold my breath while underwater for as long as I could just so I too could say I didnt inhale. I wouldnt count that as hesistation in following orders... thats just me.
- Jeff Meuse, Hooksett, NH

I'd like to know where Jeff from Goffstown gets his information. Minimal experience? She has been advocating for the middle class, children, women, and people with disabilities for 35 years. She has served in the senate for 8 years and was reelected in 2006 with 67% of the vote.
- AJ Malloy, Dunbarton

Late deciders are the reason why the polls were wrong. Nothing suspicious went on. Obama got overconfident and just rode his stump speech through New Hampshire while Hillary ran a spectacular campaign here, spending hours fielding questions from voters.
- AJ Malloy, Dunbarton

You are not showing your independence by purposefully voting against what the press predicts. Especially if you do it EVERY TIME. Nor do you show independence by casting a vote simply because you feel sorry for someone.
NH lost a golden opportunity to take a true independent stand, by voting for someone who is outside of the D.C. establishment.
- Roger, Richmond, VA

My concern is do we really have this many voters in NH who want the devisiveness of the last 16 years to continue? Hillary has minimal experience, no intrgrity, and only Bill as a questionable asset. What are the Clinton voters thinking? Are they even stopping to think?
- jeff, goffstown

As we saw with Carol Shea-Porter's victory, we cannot trust the polls. The media likes to tell us who will win, and yet the people of New Hampshire, as independent minded as we are, refuse to let the media crown the victor. We make up our own minds and we decide who wins. Congratulations Hillary, and congratulations New Hampshire on deciding for yourself who would win our great state's historic primary.
- Ken Lambert, Manchester, NH

Just a short while ago Hillary had a 20+ point lead over Obama. then in the frenzy of the IA Obama win the pundits went all in for Barack they were being fed info about the Clinton implosion... they were very wrong but...

BARACK made up 18 pts! and is now no more than 3 points behind!

That is the real story, the manipulation of the Press by Clinton's lowering Hillary's expectations so Losing a 20+ point lead looks like a major victory
- Bob DeMaura, Peterborough

With my tin-foil hat tucked away in the closet, I also share a certain (albeit slightly different) concern with Ms. Collins from Nashua. This is the third time (from recent memory) that the poll numbers were WAAYYY off from the actual results. The other 2 times (2000 in FL and 2004 in OH)also had Diebold voting machines heavily involved, propping up Republicans. I've been seeing Diebold vans/trucks everywhere lately; I hope they're not hiding something. I wonder if they're trying to promote an easily-beatable Hillary over a slam-dunk candidate like Obama. You don't think there would be voter-shenanigans with the GOP here in NH, would there? ;) Maybe this is something that the Union Leader should investi... oh, who am I kidding? Go McCain!!!
- Breyer S., Manchester, NH

Yeah Susan...no risk involved. You don't just SOUND like a Hillary hater. Your seriously saying that people were PAID to vote for Hillary? Really?? With the thousands upon thousands of people that would need to have been paid....everyone accepted and promised to keep it under wraps? Not ONE person would come forward and say what was going on? They approached people that were supporting Obama and, simply with cash, convinced them to change thier vote and to kepp quiet?? This is what your saying?? Wow. Creative imagination to say the least. Or just sour grapes. You choose.
- Mike, Concord

How could she have won? The people got out there and voted!! I voted for Hillary as did a bunch of other people of know.
- Amy, Goffstown

To be honest I’m very happy with the NH primary results, albeit pleasantly surprised. I would chalk this up as a potential flaw in the pre-polling surveys. In my personal network of friends, co-workers and family, I always believed that NH has a very large Hillary support number. And at the same time, I do not know of a single person who was actually polled before the election. Perhaps the pre-polling survey pool should be revisited prior to November to have more realistic results. To comment on Susan’s remarks, I’m not certain where her facts were gathered from to indicate the speculation that the Hillary campaign bribed voters, but I feel that the comment is unfounded.
- Jaime Miller, Manchester, NH

Wow Susan. You have no faith in our systems, do you? That's sad considering you probably voted too. Just remember, there are 48 more states. People are always going to have to blame someone when someone else was "supposed to win." All of those undecided voters must have made their minds up at the polls. It's going to be an interesting rest of the year.
- Amanda, Merrimack, NH

The reason Hilary won is that people in NH (I am from there) go into the booth and vote their gut, not what is new or different or trendy. As an avowed Independent - though I lean Republican here, I personally would have voted for Hilary. As much as I don't 'like' the woman, I believe she would make a good President (or at least AS GOOD AS anyone else running). Not only that, but as a woman, I do not see another woman on the horizon for a while - so why not Hilary?
- Anne Allen, Durham/ME

I suspect when the NH primary is analyzed it will be determined that the large voter turnout worked to Hillary's advantage. With a lager turnout the youth vote critical to Obama was simply offset whereas had a low or below normal turnout occured Obama may have prevailed because of the youth vote.
- Pete, Dover

I did not vote for her. She did win it fair and square. The only suspicious activity was the Shaheen machine holding back the Durham/Madbury/Dover/Rochester results until the very end. If there were going to be chicanery, it would be there. In the end , it did not happen because Hillary won outright in the cities and big towns such as Derry and Salem. give her credit. NH is not a sore loser type of place
- paul needham, derry

Susan, I couldn't disagree more. As soon as McCain was announced the winner, I knew it wasn't good news for Obama. Obama needed the independent vote much more than Hillary, and those votes went to McCain. As an Obama supporter, I saw many more people out in the streets for Hillary in your city and throughout the state in the final days and I thought it was an act of desperation, but it worked. Yesterday reminded me of the movie Gladiator, Hillary lost the fight in Iowa and NH was the emperor with their thumb out that spared her. This is going to be a great race.
- Jim, Manchester

Before you go on about Polls you should also know the undecided vote was a large margin. Many registered independents, like myself, were chased relentlessly and I refused to be part of a poll. Recent campaigning and more research likely changed people's mind at the last minute.
- Wendy, Candia

Oh for the love of pete! That is ridiculous. Polls have always been a waste of time in such tight races. NH Hillary supporters spoke and your nonsense sounds like pure sour grapes and does nothing to support your candidate. Move on.
- Wendy, Candia

She won because people got out and voted. I for one voted for her!!!!
- Amy, Goffstown

Go Hillary! Yesterday I stood up for women when I voted for Hillary. Right along I have been an Obama supporter, but the press turned an emotional moment into a so called sob-fest! Hillary speaks with clarity, has experience, and will get the job done. She deserves this win, my vote counted and I am certain that many stood in agreement with me when we gave our votes to Hillary.

Each of the top democratic candidates would be great leaders. Who did the pollsters poll? Ten points is a wide margin of victory on a 3-4%margin of error poll. If you need to blame someone, blame the polling people, because they apparently did not poll the right people.

Look to the people who give out the information about the numbers if you are looking for a conspiracy.
- Kate Desrochers, Manchester, NH

So much for pundits, pollsters and their "poll results." I said right here last week that "polls" should be outlawed, that they mean nothing and that " they are the figment of someone's imagination." So my State has spoken, not they way I had hoped, for both parties but this is the American way. Good job people of New Hampshire. I'm proud of you.
- Norm Landers, Sanford, Florida

Sounds like someone is a little upset that her canidate Obama) didn't win. Before you make accusations you should be sure about your facts. If I were Hillary Clinton I would sue you for slander. There is no way that this campaign was not on the up and up. Do you have proof that The Clintons did this type of thing before? As far as Hillary Clinton winning the NH Primary, I believe that she is the best canidate to be President and so do the majority of New Hampshire voters.
- Lynda, Manchester

There are lies, damn lies, and political polls.
- Glenn, Bedford, NH

One added point, beyond "put down the kool-aid", is this... I grew up in Manchester and lived in Coos County for awhile as well. Obama played very very poorly in traditional blue collar areas. Turns out traditionally blue collar folks like a message beyond hope and change. They often live hope and change. Obama is a darling of the elite liberal left, and has done nothing to distinguish himself otherwise. Your candidate did not lose because it was stolen, your candidate lost because of that not a conspiracy
- John A. Groulx, Norwood, MA

Susan, while I can't say I'm as suspicious as you that something dishonest actually took place, I will point out that the opportunity was there. Having voted in Manchester, I can tell you we are desparately in need of some polling place reform. As a registered voter, I didn't need to show any ID in order to vote. Had I been inclined to vote multiple times, I simply would have gone in the morning, looked at the list of uncrossed names in the books the volunteers open right in front of everyone, and gone back later claiming I was one of those people. Can you imagine the horror of showing up to vote and being informed that you had allegedly already voted? We can't rely on the honor system when it comes to voting - I'm astounded by the gross lack of security I see at my local pollling place (Gossler Park School).
- Rusty Shackleford, Manchester

Susan:
Why do you doubt the election and not the poll results?
- Gail, Derry, NH

Anyone who trusts polls to predict election results is naive. Pollsters are not voters, and in this election many, many people made up theirs minds very late in the process. Clinton and Obama's poll numbers have been up and down for weeks, and in those weeks and days before the election, voters continued to weigh the issues and evaluate the candidates. For many voters it was a tough choice between candidates. The beauty of an Obama win in Iowa and a Clinton win in New Hampshire is that both canditates are viable, and Edwards may well be viable, too. That means the candidates can continue to state their positions and make their cases, and the participation of voters in many other states will be essential to choosing the Democratic nominee. People are getting involved, thinking carefully about their choices, and casting their votes. Let's not reduce ourselves to the mud-slinging of the past. Let's embrace change and celebrate the energy and excitement of this fascinating and unpredictable election process.
- Barbara, Manchester

Susan, I understand your concerns. However, I wouldn't believe the polls you see before the primary. Case in point, someone called me a week ago at a very bad time. To get them off the phone, I said I would vote for Obama (when I still was undecided).

Also, I think because there were so many undecided voters, when they got to the polls, they decided to vote for Clinton. Thus, her big surge at the end.

Just my .02 cents.
- Elizabeth, Candia

Susan from Nashua, it sounds like you are an angry Republican, Hillary Clinton's victory came at the hands of women, who voted in larger numbers than men and went for Clinton by 13 percentage points. Fewer young voters turned out for Obama as they did in Iowa, depriving him of crucial support. And he lost many independents to Republican candidates, the great weather also helped Hillary with the record turnout.
- Tony, Bedford

I am quite happy with the results of the primary. At least with a half million voters showing up, we have a better idea of where all the people stand. If we had 100% of voters the show up it would be even better. In the past presidents have been elected with only 15% of the population wishes.
- John, Raymond

I belive New Hampshire was right in selecting Hillary Clinton as the Democratic candidate for President. What does she bring to the table? Knowledge, experience and resources count for so much more in this race. All the candidates are for change but Hillary is the only one that can do it as an insider. Although Barack Obama vows change, he is an untested candidate who says what all of us want to hear. But reality says that the new kid on the block will make many,many mistakes in an effort to make good on his campaign speeches. Hillary has spent 8 years in the White House already. She was the personal confidant of a President that did a lot of good for our country (personal problems aside). What counts is what he did for the country. I am sure that many of the decisions he made were the results of his conversations with Hillary. To now have Hillary as President, the country will benefit far greater than with any other candidate. No other candidate will have the benefit of the wisdom of a successful President as Hillary will. As she was Bill Clinton's confidant, he will return as the confidant of Hillary Clinton. We as a country will have the benefit of two very powerful, dedicated, well known, and well respected leaders serving our people. Any other candidate for President will have a long learning curve just to get to know the players necessary in order to effect any kind of changes. With Hillary's experience in politics, she will begin leading our country with positive results from day one.
- Vincent Laposta, Hooksett

Once again, New Hampshire voters proved they know what is important. They may "rally" with their hearts, but the vote with their heads.
- Kathy, Salem

The differance was 6 thousand votes out of a half million people that Clinton won. She didn't win anything, actually, there is so much more to go. Super Tueday will be the deciding factor. No one is more a fool that celebrates before you win.
- Chris Harris, Derry NH

At the risk of sounding like a "Hillary hater" gone paranoid, I have to say that I am highly suspicious of the results of the N.H. primary. After all the polls showed Obama WAY AHEAD of Hillary, how could she have won?? I don't believe she should have. I believe her campaign "operatives" greased a bunch of palms, probably in the urban areas of N.H. The Clintons have done this type of thing before, and Hillary HAD to win N.H. in order to "stay alive" in her campaign. A WARNING: if Obama rebounds, and I believe he will, be prepared to see more of this sort of thing, and be prepared for negative (and false) "revelations" about Obama suddenly and "mysteriously" surface. Yep, that's the way the Clintons operate.
- Susan Collins, Nashua

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