Durham – As Republican John McCain prepares to return to New Hampshire tonight and hold a town hall meeting in Rochester tomorrow, a new Granite State poll shows him in a statistical dead heat with Democrat Barack Obama.

New Hampshire, living up to its billing as a toss-up state, favors Obama over McCain, 46 to 43 percent, while 3 percent prefer some other candidate and 8 percent are undecided.

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll has a margin of error of 4.5 percent, making it a dead heat, according to poll director Andrew Smith.

Smith’s team polled 519 randomly selected New Hampshire adults, including 475 likely voters, from July 11 through July 20.

It is the first UNH presidential poll since early May, when Hillary Clinton was still in the Democratic race. At that time, McCain was ahead of Obama, 49 to 43 percent.

The latest poll also shows that although Granite Staters have seen much of the candidates for more than a year, collectively, they remain very much in flux.

The poll shows that only 51 percent of those polled say they have definitely decided who they will vote for in November, while 21 percent are leaning toward one candidate or another and 28 percent said they are truly undecided. Among those who say they have definitely decided who they will support. Obama holds a 54 to 44 percent lead.

Among independents, 45 percent are still trying to decide, according to Smith, while 58 percent of Democrats and 58 percent of Republicans have made final decisions.

“Neither Obama nor McCain can claim to have a hold on the New Hampshire electorate,” Smith said.

McCain is scheduled to arrive in New Hampshire tonight and to hold several private meetings tomorrow morning before heading to the Rochester Opera House for a mid-day town hall meeting. Since becoming the presumptive GOP nominee, McCain held town hall meetings in Exeter in mid-March and in Nashua in mid-June.

His campaign has said his frequent visits show that McCain believes New Hampshire, even with only four electoral votes, is critical to him winning the White House. Obama was in New Hampshire last month with Clinton at a well-publicized event in the tiny town of Unity. It was his first post-presidential primary visit.

The poll shows that Obama is leading among self-identified independents, 42 to 31 percent, while 78 percent of Republicans say they will vote for McCain and 82 percent of Democrats say they will vote for Obama. Twelve percent of Democrats say they will vote for McCain and 12 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Obama.

The candidates have similar favorable-unfavorable ratings, with 58 percent of those polled reacting favorably, and 31 percent unfavorably, to Obama; and 56 percent reacting favorably, and 31 percent unfavorably, to McCain.

Among self-identified independents, Obama’s favorable/unfavorable rating is 58 to 29 percent and McCain’s is 58 to 28 percent.

The poll also shows:

-- Obama leading McCain 47 to 40 percent in the 1st Congressional District and the candidates tied at 45 percent in the 2nd District.

-- McCain leading Obama 53 to 35 percent among those without a college degree and Obama leading McCain, 53 to 37 percent among those with a graduate degree.

-- McCain leading Obama 57 to 33 percent among those 65 years of age or older and Obama leading 57 to 39 percent among those 18 to 34 years old.

-- Obama leading in the North Country, 46 to 42 percent; in the Connecticut Valley, 47 to 43 percent; in the Seacoast, 55 to 33 percent; and in the Manchester area, 48 to 35 percent.

-- McCain leading in southern towns bordering Massachusetts, 51 to 40 percent.

The poll shows that 41 percent of Granite Staters believe jobs and the economy is the most important campaign issue. Gasoline prices and health care tied for second with 13 percent each, while the war in Iraq and the war on terrorism were each named the top issue by 8 percent.

McCain’s campaign yesterday began airing a new television ad in New Hampshire and 10 other swing states and on national cable television networks.

The ad asks, “Who can you thank for rising prices at the pump?” and answers with a chant of “Obama.”

An announcer then says, “One man knows we must now drill more in America and rescue our family budgets. Don’t hope for more energy, vote for it. McCain.”

Democrats held a news conference in Concord today criticizing McCain votes on the federal Low-Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP) program.