In exchange for raising the debt ceiling, we would like to have seen Congress obtain substantial tax code and entitlement reform, a federal budget that actually spends less than the current one, and a balanced budget within a decade. We also would like to see a unicorn. The odds of seeing the former are roughly the same as seeing the latter.

The Tea Party movement did a great job holding House Speaker John Boehner’s feet to the fire during the debt ceiling negotiations. Were it not for the Tea Party, there is no way the House proposal would have contained significant spending curbs and no tax increases, as Boehner’s plan does. It does not go as far as the Cut, Cap, and Balance plan, but it has one advantage over that proposal: it has a shot in hell of becoming law.

The Boehner plan is hardly perfect. It does not cut enough, and it does not improve a single entitlement program. But it does restrain federal spending, and it does not raise taxes. Given that the President has spent months demanding massive tax increases, but has refused to say he will veto the Boehner plan, there is a good chance he will sign it.

If the Boehner plan (preferably with improvements sought on Wednesday) is the one sent to the President’s desk, he will have two choices: sign a plan that curbs spending in exchange for raising the debt ceiling, or veto it and be solely responsible for the consequences. He will sign it, and there will be no huge tax hikes. That would be a real win for conservatives and the nation, and a real loss for the President.