Since Aug. 15, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has led every national poll of Republican presidential contenders. Mitt Romney, who the media have dubbed the “front-runner” for more than a year, sometimes trails Perry by double digits. Suddenly, Romney is no longer the “front-runner,” and, according to some, Perry has the nomination all but sewn up.

There is one major problem with that conventional wisdom: Rick Perry has not actually beaten Romney, or anyone else, yet.

Yet again, national pundits and political handicappers are confusing the general impressions of voters as reflected in national polls with actual votes. Not so long ago, U.S. House Speaker Dick Gephardt had the Democratic nomination all but sewn up. Then Howard Dean did. Only, it went to John Kerry. John McCain was a dead man walking in 2007. Except, his campaign didn't die; he won the nomination over “front-runner” Mitt Romney a few months later. That same year, Barack Obama was going to walk away with the New Hampshire primary. Until Hillary Clinton did.

Republicans are showing some real enthusiasm for Rick Perry, that is true. But why? It isn't because they know much about his policies. They don't. He has not explained what they are yet. He has not participated in a single presidential debate (though he will be in his first on Wednesday), and he has visited Iowa and New Hampshire only a handful of times for only a few small events.

So why are Republicans giving him such good poll numbers? It's because he seems to be the kind of candidate so many of them are looking for. He appears to have solid conservative convictions, firmly held, and to be confident, charming and likeable. Whether Republicans continue to view him that way will depend on his performance in the coming months. And that is what the national chattering class so often misses: Performance often corrects first impressions.

Rick Perry might be the candidate Republicans in New Hampshire and elsewhere choose to challenge President Obama next year. Then again, he could totally blow it in the next six months and be out of the race by Super Tuesday. Anyone who pretends to know which outcome will occur is doing nothing more than guessing.