The good news in last week’s report on the progress of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) is that carbon emissions in states that have ratified RGGI fell considerably from 2005-2009. The report noted a drop of 60.7 million tons. The bad news for RGGI fans is that almost all of that reducation can be attributed to factors other than RGGI.

The report contains an analysis from last November, conducted by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority. It came up with the 60.7 million tons figure, and it broke that down by cause.

The largest contributing factor, accounting for almost a quarter of the reduction (24.2 percent), was “weather.” That is, warmer weather caused people to burn less fuel. The second-biggest factor (23 percent) was the rise in oil prices. The rise in coal prices accounted for another 8.1 percent, meaning that fuel price increases accounted for 31.2 percent of the region’s carbon emissions reductions.

Think about that for a moment. RGGI opponents often argued that the scheme was not necessary because the marketplace would eventually shift people to alternative fuels. “Eventually” happened right away. Price-based shifts to natural gas and hybrid vehicles have already spurred a big reduction in CO2 emissions.

Increased use of nuclear power accounted for 8.2 percent of the reduction, the economy for 4.4 percent, and miscellaneous load reductions (meaning less burden on power-generation facilities) 7.6 percent.

Energy efficiency and consumer-sited power generation (such as home solar panels) accounted for 11.9 percent of the reduction, decreased coal capacity 6.2 percent, increased wind power 3.7 percent and increased hydro power 2.6 percent. RGGI could be said to have contributed a bit to these factors, but it cannot account for 100 percent of them. So at best, RGGI was a factor in a fraction of 24.2 percent of the region’s carbon reduction.

Oh, and RGGI cost ratepayers more than $900 million.

More carbon reduction is occurring outside of this costly tax scheme than within it. It should be scrapped.