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Cain Train runs out of track; who gets a boost?





  • Republican presidential candidate businessman Herman Cain gestures at the crowd as his wife, Gloria, looks on during his announcement that he is suspending his campaign at his Georgia campaign headquarters in Atlanta on Saturday.


    (REUTERS/John Adkisson)


Some political analysts say former House Speaker Newt Gingrich probably attracted many of Herman Cain's prior supporters and might pick up some new ones after the former pizza mogul suspended his GOP presidential campaign Saturday.

Others aren't so sure.

“I think whatever support (Cain had) would certainly go to the surging candidate in the race, and right now that's Newt Gingrich,” said Michael Dennehy, a former John McCain senior adviser and longtime Republican strategist from Concord. “I believe his support has gone to Newt Gingrich. I believe that explains a lot of Newt Gingrich's momentum.”

In Atlanta, Cain announced Saturday he was suspending his campaign, leaving one less choice for Republican primary voters. Cain plans to endorse a GOP candidate.

New Hampshire Rep. Sam Cataldo, R-Farmington, said he shifted his support from Cain to Gingrich on Saturday after hearing Cain's announcement.

“I was looking at both of them,” Cataldo said. “I like the combination of Cain and Gingrich, so if one dropped out, I would go with the other one.”

Cataldo, who said he was misidentified previously as switching from Cain to Gingrich, said he liked Cain's business experience and had planned to stick with him.

Other political analysts expect Cain supporters to not line up behind any one candidate.

“I think Cain's support very likely will go a number of directions, and I don't think there's one beneficiary,” said former state party Chairman Steve Duprey.

Cain polled 4 percent in a WMUR Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center last month. Cain's unfavorable ratings soared from 19 percent in October to 51 percent in November as a series of sexual harassment allegations surfaced.

Cain participated in debates at St. Anselm College in Goffstown in June and at Dartmouth College in Hanover in October. Last month, Cain skipped a scheduled interview at the New Hampshire Union Leader, and reports of cancellation made headlines elsewhere. He did sit down for an interview at the newspaper last week.

Andy Smith, the survey center's director, said Cain's support peaked at 12 percent in the October UNH poll. He expects Cain supporters will move to “the more conservative candidates who are left.”

He said 84 percent of voters surveyed said they could change their minds before New Hampshire's primary Jan. 10.

“Nobody's got their vote locked down right now,” Smith said.

Cain, a former Godfather's Pizza chief executive, said he was suspending his White House bid after a Friday night meeting with his wife, Gloria, who appeared at his side and smiled throughout.

Cain said a “cloud of doubt” had settled over his campaign. He insisted that accusations that he sexually harassed several women and had a 13-year affair with Atlanta businesswoman Ginger White were simply not true.

“I am suspending my campaign because of the continued distraction, the continued hurt,” said the 65-year-old.

On Thursday, Cain visited the New Hampshire Union Leader and said departing the presidential race “is an option.” Cain conceded he repeatedly gave White money to help her without telling his wife. Cain said his wife didn't know he was friends with White until White alleged the two had a 13-year extramarital affair.

Rep. William Panek, R-Farmington, who recently switched from Cain to Gingrich, called Cain's decision “a smart move.”

He said an allegation of an extramarital affair “was just the final straw” of why he defected from Cain.

Fergus Cullen, a former state party chairman, said he didn't see Cain's announcement making much impact. “Marginally, it might help Newt Gingrich a little,” he said.

Cain “had no organization to speak of in the state,” Cullen said. “I just don't think his demise has any real impact beside simplifying the choice of removing some of the clutter.”

Differing with some other analysts, Cullen said: “I don't see a real tie of Cain's slide and Gingrich's rise.”

Republican National Committeeman Steve Duprey, a former state party chairman, said he doesn't “think there's one beneficiary” from Cain's decision.

“There are a number of candidates running this time who are basically using free media surrounding those debates as a substitute for a real grass-roots campaign,” Duprey said. “Unfortunately, it's like a tree with no roots. When a strong wind comes, the tree gets upended.”

Various campaigns issued statements regarding Cain's decision.

Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minnesota said: “Herman Cain provided an important voice to this process. His ideas and energy generated tremendous enthusiasm for the conservative movement at a time it was so desperately needed to restore confidence in our country. I wish Herman, his wife, Gloria, and his family all the best.”

Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas said: “Herman Cain brought energy and enthusiasm to the Republican nominating process as well as a unique perspective on many domestic issues important to voters, such as tax code reform and a pro-growth agenda favorable to the private sector.

“In light of his suspension of campaign activities, I want to wish Herman success in his future endeavors,” Paul said.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry said: “I know this was a difficult decision for Herman Cain, his family and his supporters. He helped invigorate conservative voters and our nation with a discussion of major tax reform. Anita and I wish him and his entire family all the best

Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson said: “I have no doubt Herman Cain will remain a significant voice in the dialogue about the many important issues we face. His rejection of business-as-usual in Washington has been a valuable part of this campaign and clearly resonates with a great many Americans. I wish him the best.”

In New Hampshire, UNH professor Dante Scala, who's written a book on the New Hampshire primary, said “the ripples are going to be small” from Cain's departure.

“It does sort of clarify things for voters. It's one less candidate to choose from and so forth,” Scala said. “There's still five more weeks to decide — at least for us,” he said.

Reuters contributed to this story.

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