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Like other Florida voters, NH snowbirds wary
ORMOND BEACH, Fla. — Newt Gingrich is making a strong run at Mitt Romney in the Florida Presidential Primary, but it isn't because Gingrich is beloved by the state's Republican voters. In fact, Gingrich's surge may be saying more about Romney than about Gingrich, in a key swing state expected to play a major role in determining the next President of the United States.
The complexities of the Florida electorate, the timing of the campaign — 10 days following South Carolina — and the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates all cloud the outcome. So, too, does the fact that independent voters can't participate in the primary. A key voting bloc thus is out of the picture — enhancing the influence of the state's significant conservative bloc along the Interstate 4 corridor and in north-central Florida and the Panhandle. Gingrich benefits, but don't discount Rick Santorum. He's siphoning off ballots from conservative voters Gingrich needs to win to again upset Romney, as he did in South Carolina. Santorum has been working the Interstate 4 corridor hard, where he is playing to kindred spirits.
Then, there are the issues: Unemployment in Florida remains high. The toll from the housing collapse continues to linger, for young and old, rich and poor. The state has a huge population of seniors concerned about Social Security and Medicare, the growth of government, and government spending. The Tea Party is a significant force. Widespread poverty is a fact of life. Military concerns are high on the agenda — particularly in the Tampa Bay area, Jacksonville and the Panhandle — and include aid for veterans, military pensions and a strong defense. The Obama Administration's latest announcement on cuts serves only to intensify the interest.
Immigration is a major concern, and the heated rhetoric recently drew the popular but neutral Republican Sen. Marco Rubio into the fray with a slap at Gingrich, who remade an ad to make it more acceptable to the Cuban-American population. (Rubio remains on virtually everyone's short list of vice presidential candidates, a testament to the important role the state will play in the general election.)
Yet all of that merely masks the real issue facing Republican voters in Florida on Tuesday: They want a candidate who can win in November, someone who can decisively defeat President Obama. They aren't convinced Mitt Romney can close the deal, but they are watching a new, tougher Romney campaign in Florida in recent days. Romney has taken the gloves off — and the fight to Gingrich. Voters are worried about Gingrich's “baggage,” but respond positively to his combativeness. Outside conservative circles, few know much of anything about Santorum. Ron Paul isn't even actively campaigning in the state.
A significant number of voters, perhaps a majority, are deeply frustrated by the campaign rhetoric, the negativism, the attacks, the lack of specifics on how candidates will address the problems confronting the nation.
John M. “Mike” Frost, a summer resident of Wakefield, N.H., lives in North Fort Myers. He was blunt: “We need a leader who can stimulate a dysfunctional Congress and restore dignity and confidence in this country at home and abroad. I do not see that leader in the current candidates or President.”
That comment, to varying degrees, has been central in virtually every political discussion over the past several months, among individuals, in groups and in reporting by the media. It has been evident in the rise and fall of candidates in polling. The candidates have been so busy attacking each other, there has been little time left to discuss what they would do, specifically, to fix the nation's myriad problems. That failure has not gone unnoticed among disenchanted voters here.
As Frost put it: “I am convinced that ethics, honesty and a committed resolve to improve the well-being of working men and women get lost in the diatribe of party priorities.” He believes the two-party system is broken, and, “We need to look beyond the parties to find the men and women … we really would like to see running this country, and supporting those in office who are trying to make a difference....”
He's in good company.
“I'm disappointed in the whole process,” former Salem, N.H., resident Ray Francisco said last week from his home in New Port Richey. “I don't like the negative campaigning. No one is telling me how they are going to get anything done, how they will fix the problems. They should be telling us how they are going to fix the problems instead of attacking each other.”
Francisco is “unhappy” with Romney, more so with Gingrich, and most of all with Obama, who, he says, “had his chance, but is just too liberal and isn't a good manager. He failed.” He has yet to make up his mind on who will get his vote.
Jack and Nancy Gomes, who were longtime summer residents in Wakefield, N.H., and live in Hernando, already have voted in the Republican primary. Both cast ballots for Mitt Romney, but not without serious reservations. Both, however, felt Romney was the “best hope” for beating Obama.
Jack Gomes said, “Gingrich obviously has very extensive knowledge and experience with the workings of the U.S. government. … That's good, but it is hard to envision him working with both Democrats and Republicans without gridlock. His ethics problems of the past remain a concern.”
He said, “Romney was a governor … in that capacity, he demonstrated the ability to work with both parties. … His work at Bain may have created jobs, but he needs to explain how that would translate to a national stage. Would it be lower-level jobs selling Chinese goods, or high-level jobs that would strengthen our economy and help to improve our balance of trade? It would seem that Romney could connect with those swing voters if he can convince them that he really can improve the economy and the prospect of good jobs.”
The electorate in Florida, more diverse than in South Carolina, is sharply divided — and support remains fluid, with Romney and Gingrich locked in a death struggle. The edge has gone to Romney, then to Gingrich and back to Romney. With independents barred from the voting, Romney, to win, needs a lock on moderate GOP and Cuban-American votes, and he seems to have it. Conservative Republicans and Tea Party voters will be the core of Gingrich's support, but also are the voters rallying behind Santorum. The split isn't good news for Gingrich.
There is yet another concern expressed more frequently now among voters: Are the GOP candidates doing so much damage with their negativism, with their destructive scorched-earth policies, that they will be unable to rally the votes needed to win in November?
That question may move votes Tuesday, but it may not be answered even when the GOP returns to Florida, to Tampa, for the Republican National Convention. It may not be answered until the last vote is counted in November.
.
Ed Domaingue is a former vice president of news for Union Leader Corp. He retired in May 2010. He lives in Ormond Beach, Fla., and Wakefield, N.H., with his wife, Jacquelyn.
The complexities of the Florida electorate, the timing of the campaign — 10 days following South Carolina — and the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates all cloud the outcome. So, too, does the fact that independent voters can't participate in the primary. A key voting bloc thus is out of the picture — enhancing the influence of the state's significant conservative bloc along the Interstate 4 corridor and in north-central Florida and the Panhandle. Gingrich benefits, but don't discount Rick Santorum. He's siphoning off ballots from conservative voters Gingrich needs to win to again upset Romney, as he did in South Carolina. Santorum has been working the Interstate 4 corridor hard, where he is playing to kindred spirits.
Then, there are the issues: Unemployment in Florida remains high. The toll from the housing collapse continues to linger, for young and old, rich and poor. The state has a huge population of seniors concerned about Social Security and Medicare, the growth of government, and government spending. The Tea Party is a significant force. Widespread poverty is a fact of life. Military concerns are high on the agenda — particularly in the Tampa Bay area, Jacksonville and the Panhandle — and include aid for veterans, military pensions and a strong defense. The Obama Administration's latest announcement on cuts serves only to intensify the interest.
Immigration is a major concern, and the heated rhetoric recently drew the popular but neutral Republican Sen. Marco Rubio into the fray with a slap at Gingrich, who remade an ad to make it more acceptable to the Cuban-American population. (Rubio remains on virtually everyone's short list of vice presidential candidates, a testament to the important role the state will play in the general election.)
Yet all of that merely masks the real issue facing Republican voters in Florida on Tuesday: They want a candidate who can win in November, someone who can decisively defeat President Obama. They aren't convinced Mitt Romney can close the deal, but they are watching a new, tougher Romney campaign in Florida in recent days. Romney has taken the gloves off — and the fight to Gingrich. Voters are worried about Gingrich's “baggage,” but respond positively to his combativeness. Outside conservative circles, few know much of anything about Santorum. Ron Paul isn't even actively campaigning in the state.
A significant number of voters, perhaps a majority, are deeply frustrated by the campaign rhetoric, the negativism, the attacks, the lack of specifics on how candidates will address the problems confronting the nation.
John M. “Mike” Frost, a summer resident of Wakefield, N.H., lives in North Fort Myers. He was blunt: “We need a leader who can stimulate a dysfunctional Congress and restore dignity and confidence in this country at home and abroad. I do not see that leader in the current candidates or President.”
That comment, to varying degrees, has been central in virtually every political discussion over the past several months, among individuals, in groups and in reporting by the media. It has been evident in the rise and fall of candidates in polling. The candidates have been so busy attacking each other, there has been little time left to discuss what they would do, specifically, to fix the nation's myriad problems. That failure has not gone unnoticed among disenchanted voters here.
As Frost put it: “I am convinced that ethics, honesty and a committed resolve to improve the well-being of working men and women get lost in the diatribe of party priorities.” He believes the two-party system is broken, and, “We need to look beyond the parties to find the men and women … we really would like to see running this country, and supporting those in office who are trying to make a difference....”
He's in good company.
“I'm disappointed in the whole process,” former Salem, N.H., resident Ray Francisco said last week from his home in New Port Richey. “I don't like the negative campaigning. No one is telling me how they are going to get anything done, how they will fix the problems. They should be telling us how they are going to fix the problems instead of attacking each other.”
Francisco is “unhappy” with Romney, more so with Gingrich, and most of all with Obama, who, he says, “had his chance, but is just too liberal and isn't a good manager. He failed.” He has yet to make up his mind on who will get his vote.
Jack and Nancy Gomes, who were longtime summer residents in Wakefield, N.H., and live in Hernando, already have voted in the Republican primary. Both cast ballots for Mitt Romney, but not without serious reservations. Both, however, felt Romney was the “best hope” for beating Obama.
Jack Gomes said, “Gingrich obviously has very extensive knowledge and experience with the workings of the U.S. government. … That's good, but it is hard to envision him working with both Democrats and Republicans without gridlock. His ethics problems of the past remain a concern.”
He said, “Romney was a governor … in that capacity, he demonstrated the ability to work with both parties. … His work at Bain may have created jobs, but he needs to explain how that would translate to a national stage. Would it be lower-level jobs selling Chinese goods, or high-level jobs that would strengthen our economy and help to improve our balance of trade? It would seem that Romney could connect with those swing voters if he can convince them that he really can improve the economy and the prospect of good jobs.”
The electorate in Florida, more diverse than in South Carolina, is sharply divided — and support remains fluid, with Romney and Gingrich locked in a death struggle. The edge has gone to Romney, then to Gingrich and back to Romney. With independents barred from the voting, Romney, to win, needs a lock on moderate GOP and Cuban-American votes, and he seems to have it. Conservative Republicans and Tea Party voters will be the core of Gingrich's support, but also are the voters rallying behind Santorum. The split isn't good news for Gingrich.
There is yet another concern expressed more frequently now among voters: Are the GOP candidates doing so much damage with their negativism, with their destructive scorched-earth policies, that they will be unable to rally the votes needed to win in November?
That question may move votes Tuesday, but it may not be answered even when the GOP returns to Florida, to Tampa, for the Republican National Convention. It may not be answered until the last vote is counted in November.
.
Ed Domaingue is a former vice president of news for Union Leader Corp. He retired in May 2010. He lives in Ormond Beach, Fla., and Wakefield, N.H., with his wife, Jacquelyn.