History is not on Tom Brady's side in Super Bowl XLVI.
No starting quarterback has ever won an NFL title more than eight years after winning his first, and Brady's first came 10 years ago. No starting quarterback since John Elway in 1998, and only four of the last 20, has been as old as the 34-year-old Brady when he lifted the Lombardi Trophy. And no starting quarterback since Phil Simms in 1986 has been crowned a champion after missing more than half a season because of injury earlier in his career, as Brady did in 2008.
But Sunday isn't about living up to history for Brady; it's about leaving an impression on it. Forever.
If Brady lived his football life within history's limits, he wouldn't have thrown 50 touchdown passes in a single season, or won three titles in four years, or left his name all over the NFL record books after entering the league as a lowly sixth-round draft pick.
And so as he now looks to do what only two others have done — by joining Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw as the only quarterbacks to win four Super Bowls — the Patriots QB has a chance to ensure once and for all that any conversation about history's best to ever play his position is incomplete without his name.
“There's no guy that I would want leading my team more than Tom Brady,” defensive lineman Vince Wilfork said Thursday in Indianapolis. And while his opinion as a fellow Patriot isn't likely to change no matter the result on Sunday, that might not be so true of the greater football world.
In the seven years since he was last fitted for a ring, a bit of doubt about Brady has developed. It's never been enough to knock him from the ranks of the elite, or revoke the future-hall-of-famer tag pinned to him before he'd even lost a playoff game. But since the 2007 AFC Championship game, Brady's play has made an aberration of this year's 45-10 rout of the Broncos — with the quarterback completing just 55 percent of his passes, averaging only 233 yards, and tossing seven touchdowns against nine interceptions en route to losing three of his five other playoff contests.
► Our man in Indy: Patriots beat reporter Dave D'Onofrio will be reporting from Super Bowl XLVI this weekend. Email him at ddonof13@gmail.com or contact him on Twitter @davedonofrio.
Despite coming during what has been the statistical prime of his career, he hasn't posted a passer rating better than 89.0 in any of those tilts. And, furthermore, he's now thrown more interceptions than touchdowns in five of his last 11 postseason games — which is equal to the number of times he's done it in his last 51 regular-season starts.
So there are facts fueling the notion that since his last championship, Brady has failed to elevate his play in the most meaningful games.
But a win Sunday erases that perception. A win quiets the doubters. A win restores his reputation.
“A win,” Brady said, “means everything.”
A loss, of course, would mean something, too. It would stain his record, especially because both of his Super Bowl defeats would have come against the same foe. Though it wouldn't be enough to undo the achievement of tying a record with five conference titles, or posting more playoff wins than any QB not named Montana, or bringing a lifetime mark of 140-40 into the game.
With everything he's already accomplished, another postseason stumble wouldn't be enough to knock Brady from the ranks of the all-time elite, just as it wasn't for John Elway, or Dan Marino, or even Montana, a quarterback who experienced struggles far worse than these while Brady was idolizing him from suburban San Francisco.
After winning titles in 1981 and '84, the 49ers were one-and-done in the next three postseasons, lowlighted by a particularly brutal 49-3 setback and poor play from Montana. In the heart of his prime, Montana completed just 46 of 88 passes (52.3 percent) and threw four interceptions without firing a single touchdown.
Had he not responded to those struggles by winning the Super Bowl in 1989, then earning game MVP honors en route to another title in 1990, the modern opinion of Montana surely would've been different. He likely would've been voted to the Hall of Fame. He probably still would be considered one of the greats. But he wouldn't be a legend on the shortest lists of the best to ever play the game.
That's the opportunity Brady has Sunday. His place in football's annals is safe. The floor has been laid. But now is his chance to change the height of the ceiling, once and for all, and it's an opportunity he intends to seize in the same way he did in changing history a decade ago.
“Unfortunately, I got my opportunity through Drew (Bledsoe) getting injured,” Brady said. “At the same time, I wanted to take advantage of that opportunity. Life is about taking advantage of opportunities, and you never know when you're going to get them.”
History suggests this type of opportunity might not come again for Brady — or the Patriots — and so there is urgency to take advantage. Interestingly, it comes in a building brought to life by Peyton Manning — the contemporary to whom Brady will be compared — and against Manning's little brother, as Pats owner Robert Kraft acknowledged Wednesday.
“The Manning family represents what's best about America and football. We're proud to compete with them,” Kraft said. “But, I'm pretty proud to have Tom Brady as our quarterback — and there is no one I'd prefer to have more than Tom Brady.”
Come Sunday night, history could be swayed to say the same.
Dave D'Onofrio covers the Patriots for the New Hampshire Union Leader and Sunday News. His e-mail address is ddonof13@gmail.com.
