INDIANAPOLIS --- At first glance, it's the biggest mismatch in football's biggest game, and accordingly it could well decide who leaves Lucas Oil Stadium tonight showered in confetti and champagne, and who hurries off in a huff, with heads hanging.

In terms of talent, in terms of production, in terms of pure athleticism, there's no doubt the Giants' receivers are better than the Patriots' defensive backs — and in the buildup to their battle, the long list of pundits picking New York to win have repeatedly insisted it's not close.

As they've pointed out, New England has one of its receivers playing in nickel packages. It has a recently re-signed a free-agent rookie playing significant snaps at cornerback. It has its ex-Pro Bowl corner at safety sometimes, due in equal part to his own struggles as well as the team's failure to ably fill that position.

Yet it also has the ability to help the Patriots win Super Bowl XLVI, because its greatest strength is in eliminating the Giants' best weapon.

For all its flaws, the New England secondary is disciplined, tackles decently and doesn't often surrender points by getting beaten deep — all of which should help the Pats combat the type of big-play strikes the Giants have used to save their season since Christmas Eve.

Just 7-7 at that time, and backed up to their goal line by the Jets, Eli Manning and Victor Cruz connected for a 99-yard score that wasn't just a springboard for the Blue, but was also an indication of things to come from their passing game.

Starting with that one, Manning has thrown 12 touchdown passes in leading the Giants to victory in five straight must-win games. Six of them have come on completions of 27 yards or more, while three others were set up by gains of at least 29 on the preceding drive, and two others came after they took possession deep in enemy territory after a turnover.

All told, the Giants' average scoring pass over that stretch is 35 yards — and yet, even after yielding the second-most passiing yards in league history this year, the Patriots may actually be equipped to prevent those sort of quick strikes.

New England surrendered only two touchdown passes of more than 26 yards during the regular season, and just three longer than 21. Of the 80 biggest plays their bend-not-break approach yielded, only five turned into touchdowns, and one of them was on a run.

The only time the Patriots were toasted for a TD pass of at least 35 yards — the length of the Giants' average strike recently — came against the Redskins, on a trick play, when receiver Brandon Banks threw to Santana Moss.

“Tackling is going to be a focus,” Pats defensive back Devin McCourty said of Giants receivers Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham. “Once they catch the ball, we know they're going to make some catches, we have to come out and not give them a lot of yards after the catch. That's when they get really dangerous, when they can make catches and make guys miss and turn a 10-yard gain into a 20- or 30-yard gain.”

The Patriots let that happen in the AFC Championship game, when Raven Torrey Smith slipped Sterling Moore and scored from 29 yards, but they did a good job when facing the Giants in Week 9. Manning had just two completions of 21-plus, and one of those was to tight end Jake Ballard.

Maybe the most important player in duplicating that performance this time is Kyle Arrington, who has become the Patriots' de facto No. 1 corner with McCourty moving to safety on occasion, and who is likely to match up with both Nicks and Cruz over the course of game, and whose ability (or inability) to limit their impact could be the difference.

McCourty could be a difference-maker, too, whatever position he plays. Safeties Patrick Chung and James Ihedigbo must be sure in their tackling and sure in their assignments to make sure the top doesn't come off the defense. And Moore, Julian Edelman, Antwaun Molden and maybe Nate Jones all must deliver when called upon.

It won't be easy. Cruz and Nicks are stars, Manningham is a confident complement, and they'll amass their share of catches and yards. On paper, the trio is better than the guys who'll cover them.

But on the field, a season of evidence suggests the mismatch might not be as massive as some believe.

Here's a look at which team has the advantage tonight in each situation:

When the Giants throw

Advantage: Giants

Evaluating the Patriots secondary only on its past five games, its passer rating allowed is 81.8. Compared to the league, that would've been the 12th best if sustained for a full season. As it was, New England finished 12th worst in that category.

Also, though the Giants and the media have spent a lot of time discussing how Edelman will handle himself in the secondary, the truth is that since joining the secondary he's played only 17.7 percent of defensive snaps (according to numbers charted by ESPNBoston.com). The only games he played more than 19 were in a 49-21 win over Buffalo, and last week, when Arrington missed 25 plays with an eye injury.

The advantage here belongs to the Giants. But it's not impossible that the Patriots defensive backs could deliver a performance good enough to win the game.

When the Giants run

Advantage: Patriots

It would make things all the easier for New England secondary if the Giants' attack is run-heavy. Ahmad Bradshaw is likely to play, and both he and Brandon Jacobs are good backs. However, New York was the NFL's worst in runs per yard (3.5) and yards per game (89.2) this season.

The Patriots run defense is mediocre, and can be inconsistent, but with the way Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo have played lately, the Pats wouldn't mind if the game is in their hands defensively.

When the Patriots run

Advantage: Giants

Establishing the run would help alleviate some of the pass-rush pressure on Tom Brady, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis could have a solid day like he did in gaining 4.5 yards per haul against Baltimore. But the Patriots scored only 23 points in that game, and in the regular season New England averaged nearly as many points when running for 100 yards (32.6) as it did without gaining 100 on the ground (30.8).

The Giants think they can rattle Brady — but stopping him would be even easier if the Patriots don't leave the game in his hands.

When the Patriots throw

Advantage: Patriots

The Giants' secondary is the weakness of their defense, so Brady's aerial attack will have its opportunities if they protect the quarterback from the Giants' signature pass rush.

Unless a late-week setback means he's not on the field, look for the Patriots to pick their spots with injured tight end Rob Gronkowski — red zone, third down — and try to use him when he can be at his difference-making best. The offense won't be as dangerous as usual if he's not at full strength, but Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez are still formidable weapons, Deion Branch has a knack for the big moment, watch for Danny Woodhead making a difference as a receiver out of the backfield — and buckle in for what could be one heck of a game.

Dave D'Onofrio covers the Patriots for the New Hampshire Union Leader and Sunday News. His e-mail address is ddonof13@gmail.com.