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Dave D'Onofrio's Sox Beat: Pitching will fuel this season's fortunes
Beer and chicken have been held most culpable since the season ended, but on a baseball level nothing deserves more blame for the Red Sox' failure to make the playoffs last year than the team's starting pitching.
It came into particular focus during that putrid September, though it was just as bad all year. The Boston rotation averaged shorter starts than all but two American League teams. It delivered quality starts in just 44 percent of games, which was second-worst in the AL.
And though it was ultimately credited with 64 of the team's 90 wins, 22 of them were “cheap,” meaning they were earned despite lasting less than six innings or allowing more than three runs. According to baseball-reference.com, that was six more than any other AL team, and more than twice the league average of 10.
Since then, there have been subtractions from that staff. Tim Wakefield retired Friday.k
Erik Bedard left in free agency. John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka each had his elbow reconstructed.
Yet as of today — the day pitchers and catchers officially report for Spring Training — the additions made leave the Sox with major questions at the back of their rotation, the club looking for at least two viable options to emerge from a collection of castoffs and conversions, and essentially entrusting its fate to the belief that something will emerge beyond Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz.
It's risky business in a division where the Yankees bolstered their rotation, and the Rays keep producing quality arms. If the Red Sox are to contend in 2012, the collective contributions of this group are likely to be among the primary reasons. Here's a look at those pieces:
ALFREDO ACEVES
Working for him: Has a starter's repertoire along with arm strength and attitude needed to grind out innings.
Working against him: In four starts last season, his ERA was 5.14; in 51 relief appearances, his ERA was 2.03.
Analysis: What was true of Aceves in September is still true now. The righty is more valuable out of the bullpen than he is pitching once every five days. He's got the versatility and durability to fill any role as a reliever, and with career splits in line with last year's — lifetime his ERA is 4.18 as a starter, 2.62 in relief — that's where he makes the most sense.
DANIEL BARD
Working for him: Owns a 2.88 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 192 big-league appearances, and changeup gives him a three-pitch arsenal.
Working against him: Totaled 78 walks over 75 innings as a starter in first pro season; moved to bullpen by his second.
Analysis: The bullpen acquisitions of Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon show how serious the Sox are about converting Bard from reliever to the rotation, so he's as sure as anyone on this list to at least get an opportunity. He hasn't thrown more than 78 innings since college, but his reworked delivery has become smoother and more efficient since then, which will help him handle the workload.
AARON COOK
Working for him: Averaging a solid 6 1/3 innings per start since 2006.
Working against him: Over his last two seasons in Colorado, racked up 1.62 WHIP with a 5.49 ERA.
Analysis: The best season of Cook's career was 2008, when he was an all-star — and still led the National League in hits allowed (236). The ex-Rockie has been below average the past two years, but he's been serviceable for most of his career and could be that when the Sox need him, even if that isn't for the whole season.
FELIX DOUBRONT
Working for him: He's out of options, but Sox may not want to risk losing a 24-year-old lefty with a 3.65 ERA in minors.
Working against him: Finished injury-plagued 2011 with 4.22 ERA at Pawtucket and just 87 2/3 innings of work at four levels.
Analysis: The organization liked his poise and performance when promoted in 2010, though last season was a setback. He'll need to prove himself to the new regime, and that'll be no easier as a starter than a reliever, considering effective reliever Franklin Morales is out of options as well. Unless Doubront is a starter, the roster may not have room for both lefties.
ANDREW MILLER
Working for him: He's 6-foot-7, he's lefty, and he's shown flashes.
Working against him: Has pitched in the bigs for parts of past six seasons — never with a WHIP better than 1.60.
Analysis: Re-signing Miller early suggests Cherington sees the same potential Epstein did, though at some point the southpaw has to show he can consistently throw strikes. If he does this spring, the fifth job could be his first; otherwise, the Sox may be forced to demote him and hope he clears waivers. He, too, is out of options.
ROSS OHLENDORF
Working for him: Compiled a 3.97 ERA over 50 starts with Pirates in 2009-10.
Working against him: Posted an 8.15 ERA and 1.94 WHIP in 2011, when a shoulder injury cost him May, June and July.
Analysis: Signed by the Sox last week, the ex-Yankee is an interesting reclamation project. He was bad last year for the Pirates, but was serviceable in the two previous campaigns, and the hard thrower could pitch his way up from Pawtucket if he can prove himself healthy against minor leaguers.
VICENTE PADILLA
Working for him: A veteran who's had a decent career, he has a 4.31 ERA over 1,521 1/3 innings.
Working against him: Hasn't made more than 16 starts since 2009, and last year pitched just nine games — all in relief.
Analysis: After watching him this winter, Ben Cherington was impressed by the righty's condition — and if that's healthy, the general manager knows what to expect from Padilla. Since 2002, he's had one season with an ERA better than 4, though he's also had just one year with an ERA worse than 5. What's left at age 33 is unknown, but Padilla could present the Sox with an experienced alternative if higher-ceiling options should fail.
CARLOS SILVA
Working for him: Decent command, averaging only 1.73 walks per nine innings over 1,241 2/3 career innings.
Working against him: Paid $44.75 million since start of 2008, in which time he has a 5.82 ERA and 15-24 record in 57 major-league games.
Analysis: He was released by the Yankees on July 2 without pitching higher than Triple-A, and nobody signed him. Don't be fooled by his power-pitcher build, as his average fastball in 2009 didn't crack 90 mph, and unless he rediscovered something major this offseason, don't expect him to be the answer the Sox seek.
Dave D'Onofrio covers the Red Sox for the New Hampshire Union Leader and Sunday News. His e-mail address is ddonof13@gmail.com.
It came into particular focus during that putrid September, though it was just as bad all year. The Boston rotation averaged shorter starts than all but two American League teams. It delivered quality starts in just 44 percent of games, which was second-worst in the AL.
And though it was ultimately credited with 64 of the team's 90 wins, 22 of them were “cheap,” meaning they were earned despite lasting less than six innings or allowing more than three runs. According to baseball-reference.com, that was six more than any other AL team, and more than twice the league average of 10.
Since then, there have been subtractions from that staff. Tim Wakefield retired Friday.k
Erik Bedard left in free agency. John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka each had his elbow reconstructed.
Yet as of today — the day pitchers and catchers officially report for Spring Training — the additions made leave the Sox with major questions at the back of their rotation, the club looking for at least two viable options to emerge from a collection of castoffs and conversions, and essentially entrusting its fate to the belief that something will emerge beyond Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz.
It's risky business in a division where the Yankees bolstered their rotation, and the Rays keep producing quality arms. If the Red Sox are to contend in 2012, the collective contributions of this group are likely to be among the primary reasons. Here's a look at those pieces:
ALFREDO ACEVES
Working for him: Has a starter's repertoire along with arm strength and attitude needed to grind out innings.
Working against him: In four starts last season, his ERA was 5.14; in 51 relief appearances, his ERA was 2.03.
Analysis: What was true of Aceves in September is still true now. The righty is more valuable out of the bullpen than he is pitching once every five days. He's got the versatility and durability to fill any role as a reliever, and with career splits in line with last year's — lifetime his ERA is 4.18 as a starter, 2.62 in relief — that's where he makes the most sense.
- - - - - - - -
DANIEL BARD
Working for him: Owns a 2.88 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 192 big-league appearances, and changeup gives him a three-pitch arsenal.
Working against him: Totaled 78 walks over 75 innings as a starter in first pro season; moved to bullpen by his second.
Analysis: The bullpen acquisitions of Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon show how serious the Sox are about converting Bard from reliever to the rotation, so he's as sure as anyone on this list to at least get an opportunity. He hasn't thrown more than 78 innings since college, but his reworked delivery has become smoother and more efficient since then, which will help him handle the workload.
- - - - - - - -
AARON COOK
Working for him: Averaging a solid 6 1/3 innings per start since 2006.
Working against him: Over his last two seasons in Colorado, racked up 1.62 WHIP with a 5.49 ERA.
Analysis: The best season of Cook's career was 2008, when he was an all-star — and still led the National League in hits allowed (236). The ex-Rockie has been below average the past two years, but he's been serviceable for most of his career and could be that when the Sox need him, even if that isn't for the whole season.
- - - - - - - -
FELIX DOUBRONT
Working for him: He's out of options, but Sox may not want to risk losing a 24-year-old lefty with a 3.65 ERA in minors.
Working against him: Finished injury-plagued 2011 with 4.22 ERA at Pawtucket and just 87 2/3 innings of work at four levels.
Analysis: The organization liked his poise and performance when promoted in 2010, though last season was a setback. He'll need to prove himself to the new regime, and that'll be no easier as a starter than a reliever, considering effective reliever Franklin Morales is out of options as well. Unless Doubront is a starter, the roster may not have room for both lefties.
- - - - - - - -
ANDREW MILLER
Working for him: He's 6-foot-7, he's lefty, and he's shown flashes.
Working against him: Has pitched in the bigs for parts of past six seasons — never with a WHIP better than 1.60.
Analysis: Re-signing Miller early suggests Cherington sees the same potential Epstein did, though at some point the southpaw has to show he can consistently throw strikes. If he does this spring, the fifth job could be his first; otherwise, the Sox may be forced to demote him and hope he clears waivers. He, too, is out of options.
- - - - - - - -
ROSS OHLENDORF
Working for him: Compiled a 3.97 ERA over 50 starts with Pirates in 2009-10.
Working against him: Posted an 8.15 ERA and 1.94 WHIP in 2011, when a shoulder injury cost him May, June and July.
Analysis: Signed by the Sox last week, the ex-Yankee is an interesting reclamation project. He was bad last year for the Pirates, but was serviceable in the two previous campaigns, and the hard thrower could pitch his way up from Pawtucket if he can prove himself healthy against minor leaguers.
- - - - - - - -
VICENTE PADILLA
Working for him: A veteran who's had a decent career, he has a 4.31 ERA over 1,521 1/3 innings.
Working against him: Hasn't made more than 16 starts since 2009, and last year pitched just nine games — all in relief.
Analysis: After watching him this winter, Ben Cherington was impressed by the righty's condition — and if that's healthy, the general manager knows what to expect from Padilla. Since 2002, he's had one season with an ERA better than 4, though he's also had just one year with an ERA worse than 5. What's left at age 33 is unknown, but Padilla could present the Sox with an experienced alternative if higher-ceiling options should fail.
- - - - - - - -
CARLOS SILVA
Working for him: Decent command, averaging only 1.73 walks per nine innings over 1,241 2/3 career innings.
Working against him: Paid $44.75 million since start of 2008, in which time he has a 5.82 ERA and 15-24 record in 57 major-league games.
Analysis: He was released by the Yankees on July 2 without pitching higher than Triple-A, and nobody signed him. Don't be fooled by his power-pitcher build, as his average fastball in 2009 didn't crack 90 mph, and unless he rediscovered something major this offseason, don't expect him to be the answer the Sox seek.
Dave D'Onofrio covers the Red Sox for the New Hampshire Union Leader and Sunday News. His e-mail address is ddonof13@gmail.com.
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READER COMMENTS: 9- Which NFL team do you think will sign former Colts quarterback Peyton Manning?
- Houston Texans
- 4%
- Miami Dolphins
- 25%
- New York Jets
- 5%
- Seattle Seahawks
- 3%
- Washington Redskins
- 2%
- Other
- 62%
- Total Votes: 195



