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June 04. 2012 4:16PM

Will Lynch's lobbying on CACR 12 pay off?

Last week Gov. John Lynch came out in support of the new CACR 12, the constitutional amendment on education funding. Whether he brings any votes with him will be an early indicator of the party's leanings in the near future as well as how much political clout he has left.

The amendment would require the state to "maintain" a system of public education, but let the Legislature determine reasonable standards and funding. The effect would be to overturn the Claremont rulings' mandate that the state fund all local school districts equally. But he skipped the joint House-Senate press conference and has kept a low profile in the last few days.

I'm told that Lynch is talking to individual legislative Democrats behind the scenes to try to win votes for the amendment. It needs 237 votes to pass the House. With most Democrats opposed and the Republican Liberty Caucus strongly against it, every vote is going to count.

The New Hampshire Democratic Party is strongly against the amendment with the notable exception of Lynch and presumably Sen. Lou D'Allesandro, who voted for the previous version. Former state Democratic Party Chairman Kathy Sullivan is against it, as are the two main Democratic gubernatorial candidates, Jackie Cilley and Maggie Hassan. Lynch is all but a lone voice in the party arguing that targeting education aid to poor districts is better than sending the same amount to every district regardless of wealth.

Lynch is a lame duck governor, which weakens his persuasive powers. But he still has about 70 percent approval, which ought to be a signal to House Democrats in vulnerable districts that they might want to listen to him. When the vote comes, watch how many Democrats wind up in the "yes" column.

If Lynch can pull enough Democratic votes to pass the amendment, and we're talking only a few votes, it will be a big personal triumph as well as a confirmation that he still has a little political capital left in his final year in office. If House Democrats unite against the amendment, it will be a sign that the Lynch era is already over and the party is not waiting until he departs to begin tilting back to the left.

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