It has become the caveat to any conversation about where the Red Sox are headed as they come out of the All-Star break. For all the injuries, for all the ebbs, for all the flows, any discussion of the local nine inevitably includes the reminder, They’re just two and a half games out of the second wild-card spot.

That is true. It’s a fact as undeniable as the mediocrity evident in their 43-43 record, and proof that they’re right in the thick of a postseason race as baseball begins its unofficial second half.

But as Ben Cherington begins what could be the most complicated, course-setting three weeks of his tenure as the team’s general manager, it’s important that everybody understand exactly what that means.

This isn’t your father’s wild card system, after all. It’s vastly different, actually, than the structure that enabled the Sox to break the Bambino’s curse in 2004, and different even than the rules under which the Cardinals were crowned just last fall. Back then, wild-card contestants entered the playoffs on practically even footing with division champs, save for home-field advantage.

Now, though, all a wild-card berth ensures is a one-game playoff. And looking realistically at the American League landscape, that presents a daunting scenario for the Red Sox, or any team similarly lacking an ace pitcher. At this point, the second wild-card would face a do-or-die scenario against AL ERA leader Jered Weaver and his Angels. Or, if the Angels catch the Rangers, it would likely become a winner-take-all with the two-time reigning league champs in Texas. All-Star Matt Harrison would probably pitch that game — if Nolan Ryan can’t swing a deal for Cole Hamels or Zack Greinke in the meantime. And even if the Sox won, it would then be on to face New York, with a rested CC Sabathia presumably ready to pitch twice in a best-of-five series.

That reality makes losing three of four to the Yankees last week hurt all the more, considering it left Boston 9 1/2 games off the division lead. And it essentially forces Cherington to ultimately answer one question as he explores whether the Sox should buy or sell on the trade market, and how to best fit players onto his roster as they return from injury.

Is it worth being bold, and going for it, if the best-case scenario realistically guarantees only one more game?

To answer no is admittedly to adopt a loser’s mentality. In fact, America’s current crop of major sports champions strongly suggest as much, with the NHL’s Kings, NFL’s Giants, MLB’s Cardinals and NASCAR’s Tony Stewart each barely clawing their way into the postseason before proving that all they needed was an opportunity.

But resisting the urge to overspend for a potential difference maker might be the more practical choice as Meriden’s Cherington builds his club for the stretch run — while remaining mindful of beyond. Top-level talent won’t come cheaply in trade, with so many teams still to be in contention by the July 31 deadline, so any significant deal is almost certain to come with future consequences. And as the Sox get healthy, as already constituted they’re impossible to dismiss from wild-card contention if their starters merely pitch to expectations.

That means the only real incentive to make a major upgrade is if the Sox believe they’re acquiring the pieces that’ll enable them to catch the Yankees. Otherwise, they’re essentially mortgaging a chunk of their future for a chance to play a single elimination game against what’s likely to be an elite pitcher — when they’re probably just as capable of reaching that same conclusion if they do nothing.

Unless they’re acquiring a truly elite pitcher of their own with that matchup in mind, that doesn’t seem to make sense.

And it’s not only adding external pieces that Cherington has to consider, either. With Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford on track to return in the coming days, then Andrew Bailey and Rich Hill potentially joining them in the coming month, the GM will somehow need to find room for each on the 40-man roster. While injured, each was assigned to the 60-day disabled list, so they didn’t count against that limit; but wedging them back in could cause some complications when they’re activated.

The Sox could be forced to separate themselves from a guy like 22-year-old righty Stolmy Pimentel or long-time prospect Lars Anderson. Beyond that there aren’t a lot of obvious or desirable choices, which could lead to deals involving players like Daniel Nava, Scott Podsednik or Kelly Shoppach, at positions where there is some organizational redundancy.

That, too, relates to the decisions the Sox face about how hard to pursue that wild card. Nava, Podsednik and Shoppach would all be valuable pieces of a potential playoff run, so if the front office decides to bear down in hopes of making one, they may be more likely to deal a Che-Hsuan Lin or other future-looking considerations to facilitate the present.

After all, they’re just 2.5 games out of the second wild-card spot -- which, when introduced, left Red Sox Nation thinking of the impact it would’ve had on their team a year earlier. Had it existed then, even a 7-20 September wouldn’t have kept Boston from the postseason in 2011.

But, all things considered, it looks as though the presence of that extra playoff spot may make quite an impact on the way 2012 plays out on Yawkey Way, too.

Dave D’Onofrio covers the Red Sox for the New Hampshire Union Leader and Sunday News. His e-mail address is ddonof13@gmail.com.