SALEM — A projected decline in student enrollment may cause officials to take a second look at the scope of school renovation plans.

The School Board commissioned an enrollment study by the New Hampshire School Administrators Association after voters rejected a warrant article to renovate three elementary schools last year.

The study projected an overall decline in local school enrollments.

“It is a fairly common trend throughout the state of New Hampshire,” said Mark Joyce, the association’s executive director, in his presentation to the board on Tuesday.

The trend is largely attributed to an aging population in the state and migration of young families, Joyce said. None of the triggers to upward growth are present and most past growth was based on in-migration, which has largely stopped, Joyce said.

Enrollment figures were projected out 10 years with the stipulation that unknown factors can affect the numbers beyond the next five years.

“It’s unclear after five years how much integrity we can apply to the projections,” said Superintendent Michael Delahanty.

All of the data will be considered along with possible factors and variables as facility discussions continue over the next several weeks, Delahanty said on Thursday.

The scale of any proposed renovation project may be modified in light of the report, he said.

“Certainly diminished numbers will likely affect the scope and scale of a project proposal but that does not mean that we won’t renovate three elementary schools,” Delahanty said.

It may still be necessary to renovate the Haigh School, for example, but new data may indicate a need for fewer rooms than previously thought, Delahanty said. He expressed the importance of remaining open-minded over the next several weeks as the School Board reviews it options.

Delahanty said he expects a renovation project to be proposed on the March ballot. The proposal could include renovations to the Soule, Haigh or Fisk elementary schools or to all three, he said.

Beyond that, Delahanty would like to see a high school renovation project and Career and Technical Education Center project proposal ready for the 2014 ballot. The timing is based on the possibility that state building aid funding could become available in 2014.

The project is in the preliminary stages. A committee is being formed to create a general idea of what a renovated Salem High School should look like, Delahanty said. Once that’s been established, architectural and engineering studies will further define the proposal.

“People aren’t going to vote on an idea; they’re going to vote on a concept or plan,” Delahanty said.

The CTE renovation might also qualify for state aid. State officials have encouraged the school district to have a concept of the renovation project after the start of the new year.

- - - - - - - -

Julie Hanson may be reached at Jhanson@newstote.com.