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Democrats hope to 'flip' state Senate; surging GOP says it's wishful thinking
“New Hampshire Senate Democrats are poised to take the majority in 2014,” Larsen said, pointing out that in 2012, Democrats fell short by less than 600 votes across two districts. Democrat Kathleen Kelley lost her race to Dave Boutin in the Hooksett area by 396 votes out of nearly 14,000 cast. In the Bedford area, Democrat Lee Nyquist lost to Andy Sanborn by 213 votes out of more than 15,000 cast.
“There will be a very strong District 16 candidate who is going to wage a write-in campaign,” Larsen said. “I’m not at liberty to talk further on that at this time, but you will see some energy coming out of that race in the form of a write-in campaign.”
“The Odell seat is a Democratic seat, and we believe we will win there,” she said, referring to retiring Republican Sen. Bob Odell, who has represented a cluster of 14 towns from Grantham to Francestown.
With only one primary on the Democratic side (for Larsen’s Concord-area district), and 11 for the Republicans, Larsen sees a definite advantage. “New Hampshire Senate Republicans have several Tea Party battles,” she said. “Those will require candidates and the GOP caucus to spend resources they won’t have against Democratic candidates.”
“Even though the Democratic Caucus PAC out-raised the Republican PAC (as they always have through history), the burn rate between the two PACs is significantly different,” he wrote in an email.
“Both parties will obviously continue to raise money,” wrote Killion. “But the GOP PAC will have a considerably lower burn rate with more resources to spend on contacting voters when it matters most. Advantage in cash on hand and cash discipline to the Republicans.”
Killion points out that Democratic candidates in New Hampshire and across the country benefited from the Obama campaign’s impressive get-out-the-vote effort in 2012.
“The entire Democrat ballot was aided by the Obama campaign’s historic get-out-the vote and voter identification infrastructure,” he wrote. “It swung nine of nine swing states and swung the election to Obama. It was very impressive and very wide-sweeping. In the special elections since, there has been zero implications for its existence here in New Hampshire.”
Republican Joe Kenney won the North Country Executive Council seat, even though he was significantly outspent by his Democratic opponent, Mike Cryans, who was endorsed by the family of longtime councilor Ray Burton.
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