NFL: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Buffalo Bills free safety Jordan Poyer (21) tackles New England Patriots running back Damien Harris during the second half of Sunday’s game at Gillette Stadium.

Within three short weeks, the Patriots have fallen from the top of the AFC to the thick of the wild card race.

Here’s the good news: they still control their playoff destiny.

If the Pats beat Jacksonville and Miami over the final two weeks, they’ll clinch a playoff berth, per FiveThirtyEight. If they lose to Jacksonville but win at Miami in their regular-season finale, they’ll still clinch.

The Patriots can secure a postseason spot as soon as Sunday, provided they beat the Jaguars as 16-point favorites. If the Dolphins lose or tie first at New Orleans on Monday, the Pats would punch their playoff ticket with a win over Jacksonville. If Miami wins Monday night, Mac Jones and Co. would need to win and the Dolphins or Raiders to lose in Week 17 to earn a bid.

On Sunday, the Raiders are scheduled to play at Indianapolis, while the Dolphins visit Tennessee. Both games will kick off at 1 p.m. The Raiders and Dolphins are currently slated as road underdogs.

If Miami wins its next two games and the Pats suffer an upset against Jacksonville, their chances of earning a playoff spot will fall roughly in the range of 40-60%, according to FiveThirtyEight.

If the Dolphins and Patriots both lose their next games, the Pats’ postseason odds could range from 42-96%, pending the outcomes of the Dolphins-Titans, Chiefs-Bengals, Steelers-Browns and Chargers-Broncos games in Week 17. Beating Miami in the regular-season finale would clinch a berth for the Patriots regardless of any other outcomes across the AFC the next two weeks.

The Pats’ only path to reclaiming the division requires the Bills to finish their season by losing at home to the Falcons and/or Jets.

FiveThirtyEight gives Buffalo an 89% chance of winning the AFC East after its statement win at New England on Sunday.